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Great Britain's Neso Expects Adequate Electricity Supply, Power Import Availability Next Winter

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Great Britain's National Energy System Operator said in a 2026/27 outlook that it expects electricity supply to be adequate over the winter period, while highlighting some new challenges the grid will face during that period.

The report said that early signs suggest sufficient generation availability in main interconnected power markets, in reference to the multiple interconnectors the UK has established with several EU countries.

It warns of a lower availability of French nuclear-generated power this coming winter, compared with in the past five years.

Overall, the report expects "unavailability levels" to be comparable to the previous winter and much better than in 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine made natural gas suddenly scarce in Europe.

The report said that reservoir which power hydroelectric generators in Norway, which exports power to the UK, were slightly less full than the 10-year average, but it said there was no indication of tighter power availability as a result.

The report said that European gas reserves, whose refilling at the end of each winter is overseen by EU monitoring and directives, is currently 13 percentage points below the 10-year average, reflecting supply disruption from the Iran war.

The reserves are also 7 percentage points below 2022 levels, it said, meaning Europe will enter this winter potentially more reliant on a now-less-certain spot market unless it can restore this reserve buffer more fully.

The UK switched off its last coal-fired generation early this decade and it has set a number of new records for renewables generation as its wind and solar capacity grows.

Interconnection of power generated in breezy Scotland to meet demand further south has proven an stubborn obstacle for the UK's energy transition however.

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Commodities

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