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Gold Trading at a Two-Month Low Even as Falling Oil Prices Ease Inflation Concerns

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Gold fell to a two-month low early on Monday, even as the dollar dipped as oil prices weakened ahead of an expected deal to end the war on Iran, easing inflation worries.

Gold for July delivery was last seen down US$47.80 to US$4,487.20 per ounce, the lowest since March 26.

The precious metal has remained well below its Jan. 28 record high as investors turned to the dollar as oil prices surged after the United States and Israel attacked Iran, which responded by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for a fifth of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations.

However oil prices have retreated from four-year highs touched last month on expectations Iran and the United States will soon end hostilities amid talks in Qatar and reopen the Strait, easing the inflation worries that have supported the dollar and pushed up treasury yields, both bearish for gold.

"Gold fell alongside US bond yields on Tuesday as the prospect of a Middle East peace deal weighed on oil prices, thereby easing inflation concerns. In addition, a powerful global equity rally, led by chipmakers, has reduced near-term demand for defensive assets such as gold," Saxo Bank noted.

The dollar was lower early, with the ICE dollar index last seen down 0.18 points to 98.99. Treasury yields edged down, with the U.S. two-year note last seen paying 4.041%, down 0.5 basis points, while the yield on the 10-year note was down 2.3 points to 4.47%.

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Oil Trading at a Month Low on Expectations the War on Iran is Nearing an End

Oil traded lower for a second session early on Wednesday on expectations the United States and Iran will reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the largest-ever energy supply shock.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down US$3.29 to US$90.60 per barrel, the lowest since April 20, while July Brent oil was down US$2.66 to US$96.92.The drop comes as United States and Iran continue negotiations to end their war and reopen the crucial waterway that is the chokepoint for the 20% of daily oil supply from Persian Gulf nations that has been closed since the Feb. 28 start to the war.Talks between the two countries are continuing in Qatar. While U.S. President Trump has repeatedly said a deal is near, The Guardian reported Iran is unwilling to agree to a deal that does not meet all its conditions. The paper said Iran has also launched talks with Oman on future regulations for ships transiting the Strait, which had been an international waterway prior to Iran's blockade.Though oil prices have retreated from April highs above US$110 per barrel, there is little expectations prices will quickly return to pre-war levels as importers look to rebuild inventories."Even if a deal is reached, market normalization is likely to take months, with ongoing demand for replacement barrels and depleted inventories potentially leading to a higher price floor than the one seen before the war," Saxo Bank noted.

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U.S. crude oil inventories are forecast to have declined 1.4 million barrels in the week ended May 22, following a draw of 7.9 MM BBL in the prior week, with the crude balance again realizing tighter than its expectations, Macquarie said in a Tuesday note.Beyond normal variability in flow items, Macquarie once again noted that persistently high crude exports and strategic petroleum releases could inject considerable volatility into weekly figures. Macquarie said it remains focused on refined product inputs and emerging signs of demand destruction following three straight weeks of soft implied distillate demand and two weeks of weak gasoline prints.From refineries, Macquarie expects crude runs to have risen 0.3 million barrels per day. Net imports are expected to have modestly increased, with exports down 0.3 MBD and imports up 0.1 MBD on a nominal basis.Implied domestic supply is forecast to have risen 1.0 MBD following a weak print in the previous week. Strategic petroleum reserves are projected to have dropped 9.1 MM BBL, Macquarie added.Among products, gasoline stocks are forecast to have fallen 2.5 MM BBL. Meanwhile, distillate stocks and jet fuel inventories are projected to have gained 0.3 MM BBL and 1.2 MM BBL, respectively, Macquarie said. Implied demand for these three products are forecast at 14.6 MBD, it added.

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