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Gold Falls to a Two-Month Low on Inflation Worries as Oil Prices Rise and the U.S. Reports Inflation Jump in April

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Gold traded at a two-month low early on Thursday on renewed inflation worries as oil prices rose on renewed fighting between Iran and the United States, while a key U.S. inflation measure rose in April.

Gold for July delivery was last seen down US$70.40 to US$4,411.10, the lowest since March 26.

The drop comes as oil prices rose off a month low on fresh hostilities in the Persian Gulf. The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. forces attacked a drone-control base in Iran and shot down Iranian drones, while Kuwait intercepted an Iranian missile and Iran attacked commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf.

"Gold fell to a two-month low as US Treasuries sold off and the dollar strengthened following a fresh surge in crude oil prices, fuelling concerns that tight energy markets will continue to exert upward pressure on inflation," Saxo Bank noted.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday reported the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, rose 3.8% annualized in April, up from 3.5% in March and matching expectations, according to Marketwatch. Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy, rose at a 3.3% annual pace, again matching expectations and up from 3.2% a month earlier.

The Bureau also released its second revision to its estimate for first-quarter gross domestic product growth, cutting its estimate to 1.6% from 2.0%. The agency was expected to maintain its 2.0% estimate, according to Marketwatch.

The dollar edged down following the data, with the ICE dollar index last seen down 0.02 points to 99.19. Treasury yileds were mixed, with the U.S. two-year note last seen paying 4.053%, up 1.2 basis points, while the yield on the 10-year note was down 0.4 points to 4.485%.

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Oil Rebounds From a Month Low as Iran and the U.S. Trade Strikes, Raising Doubts a Peace Deal is Near

Oil rose off a month low early on Thursday as the United States and Iran traded strikes, a threat to peace talks to end a war that is entering its fourth month and produced the largest-every energy supply shock.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen up US$2.78 to US$91.46 per barrel, rising off the lowest since April 20. July Brent oil was up US$2.85 to US$91.46.The rise comes on fresh hostilities in the Persian Gulf. The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. forces attacked a drone-control base in Iran and shot down Iranian drones, while Kuwait intercepted an Iranian missile and Iran attacked commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf.Despite the fighting, the Journal said U.S. officials expect a strained ceasefire between the two countries to stay in place while peace talks in Qatar continue.Oil prices have climbed by half since Iran blockaded the Strait of Homuz on the Feb. 28 start to the war, blocking much of the 20% of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations."Brent crude spiked ... after renewed US attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and retaliatory IRGC strikes targeting US bases, underscoring the limited prospect for a near-term peace deal as the US and Iran remained far apart on steps needed to reopen the vital waterway," Saxo Bank noted.Falling U.S. oil inventories are also offering support to oil prices. In its weekly survey, the American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. oil stocks fell by 2.8-million barrels last week, the sixth-straight weekly draw. The Energy Information Administration will release official inventory data later on Thursday.

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