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Global LNG Trade Set to Rise as Near-Term Gas Supply Remains Tight, RBC Says

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Global liquefied natural gas trade is projected to expand over the next five years, even as near-term market constraints and regulatory shifts in the US reshape the energy landscape, RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a note on Thursday.

RBC analysts said that the International Energy Forum forecasts that global LNG trade will grow by about 200 billion cubic meters, or about 19.35 billion cubic feet per day, reaching 800 Bcm within five years.

The consultancy said the medium-term outlook is underpinned by ongoing US development, highlighted by the full completion of the Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion, which raises the facility's peak capacity to about 3.9 Bcf/d and makes it the second-largest in the US.

Though the long-term supply horizon appears well-supplied, immediate market tightness persists in Europe, where Germany announced potential intervention measures this week to incentivize additional storage injections ahead of the winter heating season.

RBC said that the German initiative stops short of the emergency state-buying model deployed in 2022, instead favoring market-based incentives, including expanded tenders designed to guarantee gas availability and improve storage economics.

Further clarity regarding the scope and scale of Germany's intervention is anticipated early next week, potentially influencing price trajectories after initial reports contributed to a downward push in prices over the week.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration announced sweeping rollbacks to the Environmental Protection Agency's authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions within the power sector, providing a tailwind for natural gas and coal plants amid growing electricity demand.

What else is happening in Commodities?

Commodities

PJM Activates Demand Response, Secures US DOE Emergency Order Amid Heat, Outages

PJM Interconnection activated demand response resources and secured an emergency order from the US Department of Energy as unusually warm September weather and 36 gigawatts of outages tightened power-system reserves, according to a statement on Thursday.The DOE order, secured amid the heat and in effect through Friday, eases some plant restrictions and permits backup power use at large-load sites, including data centers.PJM issued Pre-Emergency and Emergency Demand Response for customers across its footprint Thursday afternoon to strengthen reserves ahead of the evening peak.The programs compensate customers in advance for agreeing to reduce electricity use when PJM calls on them, providing operators with additional flexibility during periods of higher demand.A Maximum Generation or Load Management Alert also remained active across PJM, allowing generation and transmission owners to defer or cancel maintenance or testing where possible, the grid operator said.The alert also warns neighboring systems that PJM may curtail electricity exports.Above-normal temperatures across much of PJM pushed the forecast peak load to about 132 GW as of noon Thursday.Hotter weather also increased electricity demand and export needs to neighboring regions to the south and west, where temperatures were even higher.PJM is in its annual outage season, when transmission and generation operators typically conduct maintenance and construction from mid-September through December ahead of extreme-weather demand, PJM Inside Lines said.PJM pulled back some planned generation and transmission outages, but roughly 36 GW of generation capacity remained offline, along with transmission outages, the grid operator said.

Commodities

Ethanol's Renewable Identification Numbers Generation Held Steady in August, EPA Says

The number of renewable identification numbers generated in August for ethanol under the Renewable Fuel Standard remained steady from July, the Environmental Protection Agency reported on Thursday.EPA reported 1.2 billion D6 ethanol RINs in August, almost all for ethanol by domestic producers. That was unchanged from July.For D4 biomass-based diesel, 693 million RINs were generated in August, down from 545.8 million in 2025.D5 advanced biofuel generation totaled 23.1 million RINS.The D4 and D5 combined total of 716.2 million fell below July's total of 823.2 million.Matt Gammans, assistant professor of agricultural policy at North Dakota State University, says the RIN generation report suggests a lower production rate than what will be needed to hit the Renewable Volume Obligation."That said, generation has increased from last year. The recent decline will need to be offset by stronger production later in the year or a draw on banked credits. If we get another report this low next month, we might expect to see a positive response in RIN prices," Gammans said.

Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Prices Fall as Demand Outlook Weighs on Storage Bullishness

US natural gas prices softened in after-hours trading Thursday as a cooler weather outlook for late September outweighed bullish sentiment from a smaller-than-expected weekly storage build.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract each fell 0.76% to $2.869 per million British thermal units.The approach of autumn is weighing on prices as cooling demand is expected to fade beginning next week. Barchart, citing Commodity Weather Group forecasts, said Thursday that the outlook had shifted cooler, with above-average temperatures expected to cover a smaller portion of the South and Southeast from Sept. 22 through Oct. 1.The cooler outlook offset some of the support provided by the Energy Information Administration's weekly storage report. US natural gas inventories rose by 44 billion cubic feet in the week ended Sept. 11, the EIA said Thursday, below analysts' estimates for a build of 48 Bcf to 49 Bcf and well below the five-year average increase of 74 Bcf for the week.The injection was also substantially below the 90 Bcf build recorded during the same week last year.Working gas in storage stood at 3,298 Bcf, down 122 Bcf, or 3.6%, from year-earlier levels but 118 Bcf, or 3.7%, above the five-year average. A week earlier, inventories were 2.7% below year-ago levels and 4.8% above the five-year average.Pinebrook Energy Advisors said storage builds have increased in recent weeks but remain lighter than normal for this time of year, steadily eroding the storage cushion accumulated earlier in the summer.That tightening backdrop has provided underlying support to the market even as power-generation demand begins to ease, the advisory firm said.Late-season heat has limited storage injections by driving demand from the power sector. Despite temperatures remaining above normal, they are trending lower as the season advances, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors.Huenefeld said the trend points to stronger storage builds in the coming weeks before more significant heating demand emerges in October.US Lower 48 dry-gas production was 113.2 Bcf/d Thursday, up 5.0% from a year earlier, according to BNEF. Lower 48 gas demand was 77.0 Bcf/d, up 3.8% year over year.Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals were 18.7 Bcf/d, down 4.1% from the previous week, BNEF data showed.Market sentiment had received a boost Wednesday after the Edison Electric Institute reported that US Lower 48 electricity output in the week ended Sept. 12 rose 16.1% from a year earlier to 94,427 gigawatt-hours.Electricity output over the 52 weeks ended Sept. 12 rose 3.3% year over year to 4,405,549 GWh.