Global crude and condensate supply losses held near 4 million barrels per day between March and May as Strait of Hormuz disruptions continued pressuring markets, Vortexa said in a Thursday note.
Brent front-month futures largely traded between $90 per barrel and $115/bbl during the conflict, signaling markets now price oil within a higher trading range amid ongoing supply disruptions.
Regions outside the Middle East Gulf helped reduce the crude shortfall, while redirected pipeline flows through the Red Sea played the largest role in limiting supply losses.
The US, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Venezuela, Canada, Nigeria, and Guyana accounted for most of the additional crude and condensate export growth recorded in May, the note said.
Vortexa said Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases pushed US crude and condensate exports to record highs in May and will likely continue adding supply through June.
Kazakhstan lifted crude production by 16% in April, driven by stronger Tengiz output, while Venezuela increased exports after importing more naphtha for crude blending operations.
To avoid shipping risks near the Strait of Hormuz, Middle Eastern producers increasingly moved crude sales to ship-to-ship transfer zones outside the waterway, Vortexa said.
Sohar became the leading transfer location because of lighter vessel traffic and its close distance to Hormuz, while the UAE first marketed Upper Zakum crude through offshore transfers near Fujairah.
Iraq and Qatar later adopted similar offshore loading strategies, helping Asian refiners secure additional medium-sour crude supplies during the disruption, according to the note.
Vortexa said global onshore crude inventories increased by 2.2 million b/d in March, while Middle East stockpiles alone rose by 460,000 b/d as exports slowed.
Global onshore crude inventories fell back to the six-year seasonal average during April and May after stockpiles increased during the first three months of the year.
Asian countries were among the first to draw crude inventories and strategic petroleum reserves in April as the region absorbed most of the recent decline in crude imports.
Stock draws later spread across North America, Europe, and Africa in May, while strong refinery margins pushed North American refiners to raise crude runs and refined product exports to record highs.
China began using onshore crude inventories in May to offset supply shortages for the first time since the conflict started, while Europe's crude stocks declined by about 650,000 b/d and largely followed normal seasonal trends.