-- 由于伊朗战争导致能源价格上涨，德国消费者信心跌至三年来的最低点，收入下降和经济预期承压，加剧了人们对通胀的担忧。 市场研究公司 Growth from Knowledge 周一发布的最新消费者信心调查显示，5 月份消费者信心指数从 4 月份修正后的 -28.1 点降至 -33.3 点。该指数创下自 2023 年 2 月以来的最低水平。 根据 Investing.com 的数据，5 月份的普遍预期为 -30.2 点。 4 月份，收入预期指数暴跌 18.1 点至 -24.4 点，而未来 12 个月的经济预期指数下降 6.8 点至 -13.7 点，原因是消费者越来越担心旷日持久的战争将对德国经济增长造成“严重”打击。 “由于通胀上升，人们的收入预期正在急剧下降。在这种情况下，人们也认为现在进行大宗消费的时机不太理想，”纽伦堡市场决策研究所消费者情绪主管罗尔夫·比尔克尔表示。 消费者的购买意愿也变得更加悲观，该指标跌至两年来的最低点-14.4点，低于上月的-10.9点。与此同时，尽管消费者的储蓄意愿略微下降了2.4点，但仍保持在16.1点的“高位”。 “由于伊朗战争导致能源价格上涨，德国3月份的通胀率从1.9%上升至2.7%，导致大多数消费者再次预期物价上涨，”GfK指出。“尽管4月份价格预期指标的涨幅略低于3月份——这可能是由于加油站油价下跌所致——但与年初相比，该指标的水平有所上升。”
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Canada's Retail Sales Momentum May Fade Later in The Year, Says National Bank
Statistics Canada's advance estimate points to a 0.6% month-over-month nominal increase in March retail sales, said National Bank of Canada after Friday's data.Given the surge in gasoline prices that occurred in the month, this figure heavily reflects higher prices at the pump. As a result, in real terms, retail sales could register a contraction in the final month of Q1, noted the bank.Nonetheless, for the quarter, information received to date indicates that real retail sales could grow at a 4.7% annualized pace, following a 2.0% decline in the previous quarter -- marking the strongest quarterly performance since Q4 2024, stated National Bank.This is all the more impressive as it is occurring against a backdrop of demographic contraction, pointed out the bank.Indeed, the most recent figures from StatsCan indicate that the country's population declined for a second consecutive quarter -- an unprecedented development.As a result, real retail spending per capita is tracking a 5.2% increase in Q1, a rebound from the sluggish prints seen in 2025. Still, National Bank thinks that this momentum could fade fast as the year progresses.As a result of the conflict in the Middle East, households will face an erosion in purchasing power in the coming months. This, combined with a mortgage interest-payment shock and a still fragile labor market, could weigh on discretionary spending going forward, according to the bank.
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Australia
Cinemark Likely to Benefit From Release Slate, Wedbush Says
Cinemark (CNK) is set to benefit from a more consistent release slate over the next several quarters and further market share gains, Wedbush said in a Monday note."The summer slate, especially in Q3, is shaping up very nicely," the report said.The note said theater investments, including laser projectors, premium seats and screens, IMAX expansion, and strategic pricing could drive market share gains. It also pointed to other benefits such as new builds and returning cash to shareholders.For its Q1 results due May 1, Wedbush expects Cinemark to post Q1 revenue of $638 million, against consensus of $629 million, and a loss of $0.03 per share, against consensus of $0.16 loss.Wedbush kept its outperform rating and a $37 price target.Price: $29.40, Change: $+0.92, Percent Change: +3.23%
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Asia Markets
Swiss Market Index Closes Little Changed; Santhera Shares Jump
The blue-chip Swiss Market Index was down 0.03% on Monday's close, as investors gear up for a busy week of corporate updates, economic data prints and key monetary policy decisions.Santhera Pharmaceuticals (SANN.SW) secured a positive recommendation from the European Medicines Agency's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use to expand the approval of its Duchenne muscular dystrophy drug Agamree to include the treatment of children who are at least two years old. The drug is currently approved for use on patients aged four and above. The Swiss specialty pharmaceutical company's shares gained 8.38% at closing.Meanwhile, RBC Capital Markets reiterated its outperform rating on Lonza Group (LONN.SW), with a price target of 670 francs, amid expectations that the Swiss pharmaceutical manufacturer's upcoming first-quarter update would be "uneventful." At the end of the trading day, the stock was up 1.83%."We do not see the Q1 qualitative update on 8 May to be a major catalyst for the stock now that Vacaville-specific commentary will no longer be provided, and any further weakness in Specialized Modalities should not be a surprise. We have also taken the opportunity to refresh and add to our commercial product (Enflonsia) and pipeline trackers. There has been some clinical progress, but consensus forecasts have been pushed out a little (aggregate peak sales estimates are unchanged)," the research firm said, noting that it views Lonza as an "attractive and undervalued compounding investment story."The local economic news calendar was empty for the day, while the release of the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer and the UBS & CFA Society Switzerland's economic sentiment index for April, as well as the country's March retail sales figures are on the agenda over the coming days. Market watchers are also awaiting the rate decisions of the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England.
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