Statistics Canada's advance estimate points to a 0.6% month-over-month nominal increase in March retail sales, said National Bank of Canada after Friday's data.
Given the surge in gasoline prices that occurred in the month, this figure heavily reflects higher prices at the pump. As a result, in real terms, retail sales could register a contraction in the final month of Q1, noted the bank.
Nonetheless, for the quarter, information received to date indicates that real retail sales could grow at a 4.7% annualized pace, following a 2.0% decline in the previous quarter -- marking the strongest quarterly performance since Q4 2024, stated National Bank.
This is all the more impressive as it is occurring against a backdrop of demographic contraction, pointed out the bank.
Indeed, the most recent figures from StatsCan indicate that the country's population declined for a second consecutive quarter -- an unprecedented development.
As a result, real retail spending per capita is tracking a 5.2% increase in Q1, a rebound from the sluggish prints seen in 2025. Still, National Bank thinks that this momentum could fade fast as the year progresses.
As a result of the conflict in the Middle East, households will face an erosion in purchasing power in the coming months. This, combined with a mortgage interest-payment shock and a still fragile labor market, could weigh on discretionary spending going forward, according to the bank.