-- ドイツの消費者信頼感指数は、所得と経済見通しの低下が重荷となり、3年ぶりの低水準に落ち込んだ。イラン戦争によるエネルギー価格の高騰がインフレ懸念を煽り続けていることも要因だ。 市場調査会社グロース・フロム・ナレッジが月曜日に発表した最新の消費者信頼感指数によると、5月の消費者信頼感指数は、改定後の4月のマイナス28.1ポイントからマイナス33.3ポイントに低下した。この数値は、2023年2月以来の最低水準となる。 Investing.comのデータに基づく市場予想は、5月のマイナス30.2ポイントだった。 4月には、所得見通し指数が18.1ポイント低下してマイナス24.4ポイントとなり、今後12ヶ月間の経済見通し指数も6.8ポイント低下してマイナス13.7ポイントとなった。これは、長期化する戦争がドイツ経済の成長に「深刻な」打撃を与えるとの懸念が消費者の間で高まっているためだ。 「インフレ率の上昇により、所得への期待は文字通り崩壊しています。こうした状況下で、人々は現在、高額商品の購入時期が以前よりも不利だと考えています」と、ニュルンベルク市場意思決定研究所の消費者環境担当責任者、ロルフ・ビュルクル氏は述べています。 消費者の購買意欲も悲観的になっており、指標は前月の-10.9ポイントから-14.4ポイントへと低下し、2年ぶりの低水準となりました。一方、貯蓄意欲は2.4ポイントわずかに低下したものの、16.1ポイントと「高い水準」を維持しています。 「イラン戦争によるエネルギー価格の高騰を受け、ドイツのインフレ率は3月に1.9%から2.7%に上昇し、大多数の消費者が再び物価上昇を予想するようになりました」とGfKは指摘しています。「ガソリンスタンドでの価格下落が影響したため、4月の価格予想指標の上昇幅は3月ほど大きくはありませんでしたが、年初と比較すると上昇しています。」
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Equities
Canada's Retail Sales Momentum May Fade Later in The Year, Says National Bank
Statistics Canada's advance estimate points to a 0.6% month-over-month nominal increase in March retail sales, said National Bank of Canada after Friday's data.Given the surge in gasoline prices that occurred in the month, this figure heavily reflects higher prices at the pump. As a result, in real terms, retail sales could register a contraction in the final month of Q1, noted the bank.Nonetheless, for the quarter, information received to date indicates that real retail sales could grow at a 4.7% annualized pace, following a 2.0% decline in the previous quarter -- marking the strongest quarterly performance since Q4 2024, stated National Bank.This is all the more impressive as it is occurring against a backdrop of demographic contraction, pointed out the bank.Indeed, the most recent figures from StatsCan indicate that the country's population declined for a second consecutive quarter -- an unprecedented development.As a result, real retail spending per capita is tracking a 5.2% increase in Q1, a rebound from the sluggish prints seen in 2025. Still, National Bank thinks that this momentum could fade fast as the year progresses.As a result of the conflict in the Middle East, households will face an erosion in purchasing power in the coming months. This, combined with a mortgage interest-payment shock and a still fragile labor market, could weigh on discretionary spending going forward, according to the bank.
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Australia
Cinemark Likely to Benefit From Release Slate, Wedbush Says
Cinemark (CNK) is set to benefit from a more consistent release slate over the next several quarters and further market share gains, Wedbush said in a Monday note."The summer slate, especially in Q3, is shaping up very nicely," the report said.The note said theater investments, including laser projectors, premium seats and screens, IMAX expansion, and strategic pricing could drive market share gains. It also pointed to other benefits such as new builds and returning cash to shareholders.For its Q1 results due May 1, Wedbush expects Cinemark to post Q1 revenue of $638 million, against consensus of $629 million, and a loss of $0.03 per share, against consensus of $0.16 loss.Wedbush kept its outperform rating and a $37 price target.Price: $29.40, Change: $+0.92, Percent Change: +3.23%
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Asia Markets
Swiss Market Index Closes Little Changed; Santhera Shares Jump
The blue-chip Swiss Market Index was down 0.03% on Monday's close, as investors gear up for a busy week of corporate updates, economic data prints and key monetary policy decisions.Santhera Pharmaceuticals (SANN.SW) secured a positive recommendation from the European Medicines Agency's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use to expand the approval of its Duchenne muscular dystrophy drug Agamree to include the treatment of children who are at least two years old. The drug is currently approved for use on patients aged four and above. The Swiss specialty pharmaceutical company's shares gained 8.38% at closing.Meanwhile, RBC Capital Markets reiterated its outperform rating on Lonza Group (LONN.SW), with a price target of 670 francs, amid expectations that the Swiss pharmaceutical manufacturer's upcoming first-quarter update would be "uneventful." At the end of the trading day, the stock was up 1.83%."We do not see the Q1 qualitative update on 8 May to be a major catalyst for the stock now that Vacaville-specific commentary will no longer be provided, and any further weakness in Specialized Modalities should not be a surprise. We have also taken the opportunity to refresh and add to our commercial product (Enflonsia) and pipeline trackers. There has been some clinical progress, but consensus forecasts have been pushed out a little (aggregate peak sales estimates are unchanged)," the research firm said, noting that it views Lonza as an "attractive and undervalued compounding investment story."The local economic news calendar was empty for the day, while the release of the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer and the UBS & CFA Society Switzerland's economic sentiment index for April, as well as the country's March retail sales figures are on the agenda over the coming days. Market watchers are also awaiting the rate decisions of the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England.
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