FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Gas Prices Face Headwinds While Oil Risks Grow, EBW Analytics Says

By

US natural gas futures recovered from a sharp selloff on midweek last week to finish at a 10-week high as forecasts for stronger heat and expectations for another supportive federal storage report offset concerns about rising production and weak LNG feedgas demand, analysts at EBW Analytics Group said in a Tuesday note.

The front-month Nymex natural gas contract fell as much as 29.7 cents from a June 1 peak of $3.396 per million British thermal units to a June 2 low of $3.099 before rebounding to settle the week at $3.336/MMBtu.

EBW said technical indicators remain supportive despite signs that the market may be approaching a near-term top.

Analysts noted that modestly cooler weather forecasts, weak LNG feedgas demand and evidence that US gas production has recovered to a four-week high all point to softer fundamentals. While cooling demand is expected to increase, current forecasts indicate demand could weaken again later in June.

EBW also cited two consecutive supportive Energy Information Administration storage reports and a growing year-over-year storage deficit that could approach 50 billion cubic feet by the second half of June.

The combination leaves room for additional upside if weather-driven demand or LNG exports strengthen before seasonal production growth accelerates.

In power markets, national electricity demand rose nearly 6% last week as cooling loads increased and businesses returned to a full work schedule following the holiday period.

Natural gas demand from generators rose by only 1.2 Bcf per day because the strongest heat largely bypassed the Gulf Coast, though weak Texas wind generation added roughly 0.9 Bcf/d to gas-fired power demand.

Looking ahead, EBW expects cooling demand to rise by 24 cooling degree days week-over-week, potentially increasing power-sector gas consumption by another 2.2 Bcf/d, with the strongest electricity market gains concentrated in the Midwest and Northeast.

Separately, the firm warned that renewed tensions involving Iran could support oil prices in the coming weeks.

While weaker Chinese crude imports have helped offset supply disruptions, EBW said US gasoline, distillate and Cushing inventories remain near decade lows.

If disruptions persist and the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, oil markets could face a bullish inflection point within the next 30 to 45 days.

Related Articles

Commodities

Federal Judge Reportedly Rejects IRS Changes to Wind, Solar Tax Subsidy Rules

A federal judge struck down a Trump administration policy that made it more difficult for wind and solar projects to qualify for federal tax incentives, according to multiple media reports on Monday.US District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly ruled Saturday that the Internal Revenue Service failed to adequately explain why it changed a long-standing standard for determining when a project is considered under construction.Judge Kollar-Kotelly reportedly vacated IRS Notice 2025-42 in a Saturday order because it was "arbitrary and capricious," and violated the Administrative Procedures Act.The decision adds to a series of legal challenges facing President Donald Trump's efforts to slow renewable energy development across the US.To remain eligible for a 30% tax credit and additional bonus incentives, developers must either begin construction by July 4 or place projects into service before the end of 2027.For about 10 years, developers could lock in tax-credit eligibility for four years by either maintaining meaningful construction activity or spending at least 5% of a project's total cost before incentives expired.Last August, the IRS narrowed that flexibility by removing the 5% spending option for most projects while keeping it available only for smaller developments, the reports said.Judge Kollar-Kotelly sent the policy back to the IRS for further review after vacating the agency's guidance, according to the reports.The Oregon Environmental Council, the Natural Resources Defense Council, Public Citizen, the City of San Francisco, and the clean-energy consulting firm Woven Energy brought a lawsuit challenging the changes implemented by the IRS last year.Arguing that the revised policy would discourage project development, the plaintiffs said the changes could also lead to higher electricity costs for consumers.IRS did not immediately respond to' request for comment.

Commodities

US Oil Update: Crude Settles Higher After Iran, Israel Signal Pause in Hostilities

Crude oil futures edged higher in after-hours trading on Monday, after a rally in the earlier session, as markets weighed signs of a pause in hostilities between Iran and Israel against lingering concerns that tensions in the Middle East could still threaten global energy supplies.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 0.82% to $91.28 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 1.19% to $94.20/bbl.Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt energy flows via the Strait of Hormuz, while tensions involving Lebanon and Hezbollah remain a major obstacle to a broader settlement.Crude prices rallied earlier in the session amid concerns that an escalation between Iran and Israel could disrupt oil flows from the Middle East. However, gains moderated after officials from both countries signaled that attacks had ceased.On Monday, Iran's central military command, Khatam al-Anbiya, said that Tehran had ceased strikes against Israel, but warned it would resume hostilities if Jerusalem continues attacks on Lebanon.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also said Israel has halted strikes for now, but said its fight against Iran and Hezbollah is not over.On Sunday, Iran fired missiles towards Israeli territory, calling them retaliation for Israeli attacks on strongholds of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah near Beirut.Israel, in response, hit a petrochemical plant in southwest Iran that it said was used to produce ballistic missiles. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards said it had retaliated with a strike aimed at a similar Israeli plant in the port city of Haifa.Erik Meyersson, chief strategist at SEB Research, said this is the most significant escalation since the April ceasefire as the conflict passes its 100-day mark today.Meanwhile, President Trump said in a Truth Social post that both countries are seeking to agree to an immediate ceasefire.The Middle East conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz are raising concerns that the world will need to tap crude inventories further, after the International Energy Agency said global oil inventories could hit critical levels ahead of the peak summer demand period.Kpler strategists said US crude oil exports surged to a record 5.6 million barrels per day in May, fueled by Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases and elevated Gulf of Mexico output.Saxo Bank analysts said the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to tighten global energy markets, with several oil majors warning that the window before physical shortages emerge may be measured in weeks rather than months.On the supply side, OPEC+ agreed to increase targets by 188,000 b/d from July, according to an OPEC statement, marking the fourth oil output quota hike approved since the outbreak of the conflict.

Commodities

Market Chatter: Permian Operators Shut Wells as Waha Gas Prices Stay Below Zero

Persistently weak gas prices in the Permian Basin are forcing some producers to curb output even as stronger crude prices encourage additional oil drilling, Bloomberg reported Monday.Producers, including Permian Resources (PR) and Devon Energy (DVN), have shut in wells with elevated gas-to-oil ratios after prices at the Waha Hub remained below zero for 124 straight days.Describing the move as an obvious economic decision, Permian Resources Co-Chief Executive Officer James Walter said the company curtailed gas-heavy production that was generating losses.While gas producers struggle with negative pricing, crude output across the Permian continues to climb as operators respond to oil prices that remain roughly 50% above levels seen before the Iran conflict.Flooding the market with associated gas from oil wells, rising crude-focused activity has overwhelmed existing pipeline infrastructure across West Texas and southeastern New Mexico.According to Targa Resources (TRGP) President Jennifer Kneale, producers are currently shutting in between 200 million and 400 million cubic feet of gas per day, compared with basin-wide dry gas production of about 23 Bcf/d.Middle East-related supply disruptions have encouraged additional oil-weighted drilling, which is adding further pressure to already constrained gas takeaway capacity, Rystad Energy Vice President Matt Bernstein said.Despite stronger crude prices, some operators have refrained from increasing production because losses tied to associated gas can offset gains from oil sales, Bernstein added.Instead of curtailing output, privately held Elevation Resources has opted to flare excess gas, allowing the company to free up infrastructure capacity and continue producing more crude oil, according to the report.Highlighting the pressure facing gas-focused operators, Elevation Resources Chief Executive Officer Steve Pruett said, "We're losing money hand over fist on gas," adding that natural gas accounts for roughly half of the company's production.Recent production curtailments have started to tighten the market, helping lift natural gas prices at the Waha Hub, according to the report.Recovering from a record low of negative $9.60 per million British thermal units on April 24, Waha prices improved to negative $0.33/MMBtu on Thursday, their highest level since February.Later this year, new Permian gas pipeline projects are expected to ease transportation constraints, allowing producers to move more gas to demand centers and improving in-basin pricing, the report said.Despite those expected improvements, Kinetik Holdings (KNTK) raised its full-year gas curtailment outlook and said higher oil prices continue to encourage crude-focused operators to expand activity while gas-focused producers face a much more challenging market environment."It's a tale of two cities: crude folks that are doing cartwheels and backflips," Kinetik Holdings (KNTK) Chief Executive Officer Jamie Welch said, while "those that are literally localized, gas-centric sellers are literally crying poverty."(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

$DVN$KNTK$PR$TRGP