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French Nuclear Fleet Could Stay Within EDF Target Despite Outage Pressures, Kpler Says

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The French nuclear fleet could keep 2026 output within EDF's target range despite heat wave curtailments and heavier maintenance, Kpler strategists said in a note on Thursday.

The fleet generated 373 terawatt-hours in 2025, exceeding its initial 350 TWh to 370 TWh projection and landing near EDF's revised 365 TWh to 375 TWh forecast range.

Strong 2025 output reflected the fleet's continued recovery from 2022 corrosion-related outages and brought generation closer to EDF's long-term potential of more than 400 TWh, Kpler said.

For 2026, EDF targets 350 TWh to 370 TWh of generation, while first-half output reached 189.9 TWh, 8 TWh above the same period in 2025.

Heatwaves and drought in July and August narrowed that advantage as environmental rules forced EDF to curtail or shut several river-cooled reactors.

Units at Bugey, Chooz and Golfech faced temporary restrictions, bringing cumulative 2026 generation to 246.2 TWh and reducing the lead over 2025 to 5.2 TWh.

Average availability reached 44.9 GW year-to-date in 2026, below 45.4 GW during the same period last year, while higher utilization helped support stronger generation.

From January through August, the fleet used 93.2% of available capacity on average each hour, up from 89.9% during the same period in 2025, Kpler said.

Kpler expects planned and unplanned outages to keep monthly availability below late-2025 levels through the rest of 2026, creating additional pressure on French nuclear generation.

In its base case, Kpler projects 125.4 TWh of generation for the remainder of 2026, bringing full-year output to 371.6 TWh.

That scenario assumes the fleet maintains its improved utilization rate after seasonal adjustments, allowing annual generation to edge above EDF's upper target of 370 TWh.

Under the conservative case, Kpler projects 122.5 TWh for the remainder of 2026 if utilization returns to 2025 levels, producing full-year output of 368.7 TWh.

Both scenarios keep generation close to or above EDF's target range, suggesting stronger utilization can offset tighter availability and the heavier maintenance schedule, Kpler said.

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