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Fitch Lowers Global Growth Forecast to 2.4% for 2026

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Fitch Ratings said Thursday that it has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4%, citing the global oil crisis triggered by the US-Iran war.

The agency said that higher inflation has squeezed real wages, weakened consumption and increased input costs for companies, but noted that the impact has been slightly offset by higher investments in artificial intelligence.

Fitch decreased its 2026 growth forecasts for the United States and the eurozone to 1.9% and 0.9%, respectively. It lowered growth in emerging markets outside China to 3.2%. However, it raised China's growth outlook to 4.6%, citing export resilience.

Fitch said it does not expect the Strait of Hormuz to reopen until July.

The agency said it expects the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England to maintain interest rates this year, but to resume rate cuts in 2027. The European Central Bank will increase rates by 25 basis points this month, but that will be reversed next year, it said.

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Commodities

US DOE Says Coal Support Measures Will Preserve 42 Mines, Projects $1.7 Billion in Private Investment

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Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Gain on Weak Storage Build and Hotter Forecasts

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Commodities

US Biofuels Update: Soybean, Soybean Oil Futures Slump on Weak Demand, Favorable Crop Weather

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