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FIFA World Cup to Temporarily Lift US Payrolls, Retail Sales, Goldman Says

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FIFA World Cup to Temporarily Lift US Payrolls, Retail Sales, Goldman Says

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to temporarily boost the US labor market and lift retail sales, Goldman Sachs said in a note emailed Monday.

The men's soccer tournament kicks off on Thursday and runs through July 19, with the US co-hosting the much-anticipated event with Canada and Mexico.

Eleven US cities, which account for a third of the country's gross domestic product, will host 78 matches, according to Goldman. Those cities make up a quarter of total US employment and the consumer price index.

World Cup hiring likely boosted May's print, with further gains of 40,000 and 10,000 penciled in for June and July, respectively, the investment bank said.

There will be a 15,000 drag after the tournament ends in August, followed by further gradual reversals, Goldman said.

On Friday, official data showed the US economy added 172,000 jobs last month, nearly double the 88,000 increase expected in a Bloomberg-compiled survey.

Goldman projects a 0.3-percentage-point boost to retail sales growth in June, followed by a 0.1-percentage-point rise in July, from fans' spending on food and beverages.

Retail sales rose 0.5% in April amid Iran war-driven price pressures, the Census Bureau reported last month.

Inflation has re-accelerated in the aftermath of the US-Israel war with Iran that has disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. A strong labor market and rising prices have weakened the case for near-term monetary policy easing.

Goldman expects the World Cup to drive a 0.1-percentage-point increase in second-quarter GDP growth, and a 0.05-percentage-point rise in the third quarter, followed by a "small reversal" in the last three months of 2026.

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