The Federal Reserve looks set to hold interest rates steady this week, though the decision will likely reveal a friction among policymakers, UBS Securities said in a note e-mailed Monday.
The Federal Open Market Committee has kept monetary policy steady this year, most recently in June, which was Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair. That meeting saw all FOMC voters agree to slash the policy statement's length and drop the so-called easing bias.
While the committee is expected to leave its rate unchanged again on Wednesday, UBS expects Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and her Cleveland counterpart, Beth Hammack, to push for a rate hike. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari might also dissent with the majority, according to UBS economists.
The probability of the central bank leaving its benchmark lending rate unchanged is 62%, with the remaining odds in favor of a quarter-percentage-point increase, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
UBS economists, including Jonathan Pingle, expect three dissents as a base case, but flagged the possibility of Fed governors Lisa Cook and Michael Barr favoring a rate hike "as a show of central bank independence."
The FOMC has 12 voters, including Warsh.
Early this month, Logan pushed for higher interest rates, saying she doesn't see inflation on a path to hit the US central bank's 2% goal. Cook said inflation is more likely to accelerate than cool, while Hammack said in June the Fed may need to raise rates should inflationary pressures persist.
"Our assessment of the divisions among participants implies that whatever the policy outcome, it will likely reflect (Warsh's) decision over the appropriateness of the current stance of monetary policy," UBS' Pingle said.
