Europe's diesel imports rebounded in May from decade lows reached in April, as a surge in US refinery exports offset the near disappearance of supplies from the Middle East Gulf and India's west coast, Vortexa strategists said in a note on Thursday.
Mick Strautmann, market analyst at Vortexa, said seaborne diesel and gasoil imports into Europe from external regions climbed to 1.5 million barrels per day in the first 18 days of May, up 16% from a year ago.
The rebound came despite a collapse in traditional East of Suez supply flows. Diesel exports from the Middle East Gulf to Europe fell to about 5,000 b/d in early May from 110,000 b/d a year earlier, while shipments from India's west coast dropped to zero from 190,000 b/d over the same period.
The combined loss of about 300,000 b/d from those suppliers was more than compensated for by rising Atlantic Basin exports, particularly from the US.
Atlantic Basin has reorganized around the gap, with PADD 1 and PADD 3 diesel/gasoil exports to Europe rising by 400,000 b/d over the year, rather than covering the East of Suez loss on their own, Strautmann said.
Vortexa said that additional volumes also came from the Red Sea-Gulf of Aden region and Canada's east coast.
The shift highlights Europe's growing reliance on US refiners to replace disrupted East of Suez supplies, following sanctions and geopolitical tensions that reshaped global diesel trade flows.
European Union sanctions imposed earlier in 2026 on diesel refined in India and Turkey from Russian crude had already reduced East of Suez flows before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz effectively halted remaining shipments, Vortexa said.
Meanwhile, gasoil inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp storage hub remained tight.
Vortexa data showed stocks in the ARA hub were 18% below year-ago levels and continued declining through April and May, underscoring limited stock cover even as imports recovered.
US refiners increased output to fill the supply gap. Combined diesel and gasoil exports from US PADD 1 and PADD 3 reached 1.8 million b/d in the first 18 days of May, up 44% from the previous 2025 monthly high of 1.25 million b/d recorded in June.
Refinery utilization in the US Gulf Coast refining hub, or PADD 3, climbed to 97% in mid-May, Vortexa said, citing data from the Energy Information Administration, about five percentage points higher than the same period a year ago.