The European Union should step up energy savings, accelerate the rollout of clean energy, and further diversify natural gas supplies to protect itself from future geopolitical shocks, the EU's Association for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators said in a report published on Wednesday.
The warning comes as renewed tensions in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since March 2026 threaten global liquefied natural gas supplies, exposing Europe's continued vulnerability to price spikes despite efforts to reduce dependence on Russian gas.
EU natural gas consumption has been falling steadily since 2019 as governments pursue electrification and decarbonization policies. However, the bloc still relies on imports for more than 90% of its gas demand, while LNG now accounts for nearly half of total supply following the sharp reduction in Russian pipeline gas imports after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
The EU imported a record 146 billion cubic meters of LNG in 2025, overtaking China and Japan to become the world's largest LNG importer. Demand increased after colder winter conditions left EU underground gas storage facilities only 34% full by April 2025, down from 59% a year earlier, according to ACER.
The US has become Europe's dominant LNG supplier, accounting for 84 Bcm, or 58% of EU LNG imports, and roughly a quarter of the bloc's total gas consumption. The report warned that Europe's growing reliance on US LNG could create new dependency risks as American export capacity expands and the EU phases out remaining Russian LNG imports by the end of 2026.
ACER also said Europe's increasing reliance on spot LNG markets leaves it exposed to volatile prices during supply disruptions or geopolitical crises. Although gas prices eased for much of 2025, recent tensions in the Middle East briefly pushed the Dutch TTF benchmark price above 70 euros ($82.00) per megawatt-hour.
A full closure of the Strait of Hormuz throughout 2026 could remove 112 Bcm of LNG export capacity from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, about one-fifth of global LNG supply. Even with new projects coming online elsewhere, the market could still face a net shortfall of 27 Bcm, intensifying competition for cargoes and forcing governments to reduce demand or switch fuels.
Several EU countries, including Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, have already increased coal-fired power generation to offset gas shortages.