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ERCOT Solar Output Could Top Coal for First Time in 2026, EIA Says

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Solar generation in ERCOT could exceed coal-fired output for the first time in 2026, with solar reaching 78 billion kWh versus coal's 60 billion kWh, the US Energy Information Administration said Wednesday.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas grid has steadily increased solar generation as utilities add new capacity to meet fast-growing electricity demand across the state.

Natural gas remained ERCOT's largest electricity source from 2021 through 2025, accounting for an average 44% of generation, while solar expanded its share of the power mix from 4% in 2021 to 12% in 2025.

Coal's contribution to ERCOT generation dropped to 13% from 19% during the same period, EIA said.

Texas could account for nearly 40% of all US solar capacity additions in 2026, equal to about 14 billion kWh, as developers continue expanding renewable energy projects, according to the EIA.

Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar and Battery Energy Storage System, an 837-megawatt project expected to begin operating in 2026, could become the largest solar photovoltaic facility added in Texas.

The EIA said developers currently have no plans to build additional coal-fired power plants in ERCOT, according to data from its Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory report.

ERCOT solar generation first surpassed coal on a monthly basis in March 2025, when solar output reached 4.33 billion kWh, compared with coal generation of 4.16 billion kWh, the report said.

ERCOT solar generation could exceed coal from March until December 2026, while solar may remain above coal in every 2027 month except January and December, the EIA said.

The EIA forecasts ERCOT solar generation will rise to 99 billion kWh in 2027, while coal generation could total 66 billion kWh as electricity demand increases from data centers, crypto mining and industrial activity.

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