EU members who met with the bloc's commission to discuss gas and oil risks on Tuesday, estimate that gas reserves they generally rely on to meet heavier winter demand, could reach 80% full by late summer, according to a statement by the commission.
Member states tend to run down reserves over the winter months when demand rises, using the reserves to supplement new deliveries, but the refilling that happens over the warmer months will be more difficult and expensive this year amid a global energy crisis.
"The Group noted that EU gas storage levels could reach 80% by the end of the summer, which would secure gas supply for next winter (2026/27)," a statement summarizing Tuesday's meeting said.
"The Group reaffirmed that the filling of gas storage facilities needs to be regularly assessed against the situation. It noted also that Member States have not planned any additional market interventions so far."
While investments are pushing up LNG supplies globally, with some concerns about oversupply towards the end of the decade, immediate supplies have been slashed by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is expected to put European buyers in competition with Asian countries for what remains.
The statement struck a relaxed tone about supply security nonetheless, noting that reduced oil and gas supplies on global markets had so far had an impact on price only, with no actual reduction in supply to the bloc so far.
"Despite the challenging market conditions, the Gas Coordination Group confirmed that there is currently no immediate concern for the security of gas supply in the EU for the next winter season," it said.
It singled out jet fuel for particular mention, however, noting that "if the situation does not improve in the next weeks, markets are expected to become increasingly tighter, especially for jet fuel."