Enverus lowered its 2027 Henry Hub natural gas price forecast to $3.25 per million British thermal units from $3.50/MMBtu, citing stronger-than-expected supply growth from the Haynesville and Permian regions.
Enverus expects US gas supply additions to outpace incremental liquefied natural gas demand by about 1.3 billion cubic feet per day by the end of 2027, leaving the domestic market to absorb the excess. The period of imbalance is expected to run from late 2026 through 2027.
Haynesville production is forecast to reach 18.4 Bcf/d by the end of 2027, with incremental supply expected from July 2026 through the end of 2027. In the Permian, infrastructure additions are expected to provide 4.7 Bcf/d of additional gas takeaway capacity in the fourth quarter of 2026 and first quarter of 2027, allowing more associated gas to reach Gulf Coast and North Texas markets.
"Haynesville and Permian supply is growing ahead of LNG demand and above our initial expectations," said Jimmy McNamara, a principal analyst at Enverus. "We expect supply additions to exceed incremental LNG demand by the end of 2027, resulting in an oversupplied domestic market and a lower Henry Hub price of $3.25."
Beyond 2027, Enverus expects the outlook to become more balanced as LNG demand grows and absorbs additional Haynesville and Permian supply. By the end of 2030, Enverus forecasts about 4 Bcf/d of additional Haynesville production and roughly 10 Bcf/d of additional Permian dry gas production.