Fresh security risks in Libya threaten oil flows, while weaker forecasts for Texas gas demand growth and new clean-energy tariffs add further uncertainty to energy markets, RBC Capital Markets said in a note on Thursday.
Washington has pursued a reunification deal since April between the internationally recognized Government of National Unity in Tripoli and the Government of National Stability in Benghazi, which is backed by General Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army.
Energy risks have increased as groups aligned with the Tripoli government clash, with recent attacks in Zawiya targeting fuel storage, Libya's largest refinery, a desalination plant and a power substation.
The National Oil Corporation warned that additional attacks could force the 120,000 b/d Zawiya refinery to declare force majeure, adding to refined-product risks as damage-related outages expand across Russia and the Middle East.
RBC said its middle-high oil scenarios assume Strait transit remains 50% below pre-war levels or lower, while deferred demand, inventory rebuilding, geopolitical premiums, insurance costs and infrastructure damage could provide further price support.
RBC said near-term headlines could provide some price relief, but China's return from "eco mode" remains a key wildcard, with no clear evidence of a fundamental shift in the near term.
In the power markets, the Energy Information Administration cut its 2027 electricity-load growth forecast for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas to 6% from 14%.
The agency also lowered its 2027 outlook for gas-fired generation growth to 4% from 20% following its review of data-center demand.
RBC said the review excludes data centers that develop their own power supplies. Amazon plans a 7.65 gigawatt behind-the-meter gas plant in Texas, while RBC estimates 38 GW of such gas capacity is under development in the state.
Starting in early December, new clean-energy tariffs will set minimum import prices of $21/kg for polysilicon, $100/kg for ingots and wafers, $0.38/watt for solar modules and $0.22/watt for cells.
A 15% tariff on downstream imports will also stack on top of country-specific anti-dumping and countervailing duties. RBC said the measures support domestic solar manufacturing while targeting China's efforts to circumvent duties through countries including India, Indonesia and Laos.