Energia Costa Azul appears to have started commissioning work at the ECA Phase 1 LNG project which looks likely to start producing liquefied natural gas in Q3, Wood Mackenzie said late last week.
The observation gives some visibility to the gas market about forthcoming new liquefaction capacity, of heightened importance at a time of restricted global LNG supply, WoodMac said.
Specifically, satellite monitoring picked up flaring activity at the gas processing zone of Sempra's 3.25 million ton per annum Energia Costa Azul LNG Phase 1 facility located in Ensenada, Mexico, on May 24.
Such flaring is usually an indicator of the early stages of commissioning, as the first gas flows into the constructed systems, WoodMac noted.
It takes the view that Q2 liquefaction now looks "ambitious", taking into account historical timelines for commissioning at similar projects.
Other steps like fuel gas introduction, feed gas processing and liquefaction system cool-down are likely to yet be outstanding and usually take several months, which would indicate first cargoes by Q3.
WoodMac says that pipeline data also appears to confirm early commissioning work, with the project having increased gas intake from the Gasoducto Rosarito pipeline to about 100 MMcf/d by May 20.
California to Mexico cross-border gas flows have risen correspondingly, to about 0.48 billion cubic feet per day, the highest ever in a month of May.
Should the project be delayed, the ramp-up could tighten the outlook for LNG supply globally, underscoring the significance of the project.