Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Wednesday reiterated its hold rating on the shares of Enbridge (ENB.TO, ENB) with a C$77.00 price target as it revisited its financial models for the company.
"We are updating our ENB model, nudging 2026 estimates slightly higher while moving 2027+ lower. Our 2026 Adj. EBITDA now stands at C$20,732MM (Street C$20,600MM) and 2027 at C$21,789MM (Street C$21,855MM). At the segment level, Liquids saw the largest revision, while all other segments moved higher. Mainline drove the biggest change within Liquids, as we adjusted our rate base model to keep returns below the upper end of the ROE collar. Importantly, our model does not yet include MLO2, which would push estimates higher and more than recoup the EBITDA trimmed in this update. ENB closed the FSP + SAX open season for 250mbpd at the end of May, and depending on shipper interest, we expect this to support a positive FID on the Q2 call. Benchmarking cost per barrel against MLO1, we size the project at roughly US$2.0-2.5B, with the bulk of spending falling in 2027-2028. Our FY'26 growth capex estimate already sits slightly above the top of the guidance range at C$11.9B (Street C$11.6B), and heavier spending lifts our leverage over the next couple of years until these larger, lumpier projects enter service. In Renewables, we layered in the new Cone project and revised how we model the associated tax benefits," analyst AJ O'Donnell wrote.
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Price: $78.65, Change: $+1.13, Percent Change: +1.46%