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EMEA Oil Update: Prices Retreat Despite Severe Supply Disruptions

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Crude oil prices retreated on Friday after surging in the last session as ongoing Middle East conflicts, severe Saudi production cuts, and tightening US inventories continued to rattle global energy markets.

Brent crude futures retreated 1.6% to $105.89 per barrel, while Dubai 1st Line (Platts) energy futures fell 1.5% to 95.78/bbl.

"Oil prices surged again yesterday as tensions intensified in the Red Sea, while a sharp drop in Saudi output added another layer of supply anxiety," ING analysts said.

Analysts pointed that the recent spike was fueled by escalating Red Sea tensions, fierce fighting between Yemen-based Houthi militants and Saudi-backed forces, and unconfirmed reports of damage to the vital East-West pipeline to Yanbu.

Adding to the severe supply anxiety, Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC that its August production slumped to just 6.23 million barrels per day, its lowest level since 1990, Saxo Bank analysts said.

On the domestic inventory front, the Energy Information Administration reported that US commercial crude inventories decreased by 400,000 barrels to 424.1 million barrels for the week ending September 4, falling short of market expectations for a larger draw.

Meanwhile, demand pressures are building in Asia as China increases its physical crude purchases.

Independent Chinese refiners have steadily ramped up run rates to nearly 63% from a July low of 45%, alongside rising runs by state refiners, signaling that renewed Chinese demand could further amplify global market sensitivities if supply disruptions persist.

"Signs of increased buying appetite from China will concern markets," ING analysts said.

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Oil & Energy

Hormuz Traffic Remains Subdued as Iran Maintains Pressure on Shipping

Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal levels as Iran continues to surveil merchant vessels, while US forces have redirected almost 100 commercial ships to enforce compliance, shipping data showed Thursday.The UKMTO said Thursday in its 96-hour operational summary that no confirmed attacks or disruptions were reported during the latest period.However, activity by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has persisted, including drone overflights, targeted surveillance of merchant shipping and occasional radio hailing.The UKMTO said that activity signals Iran's continued intent to assert its presence along key transit lanes and maintain pressure on vessels using the strait.It said that independent vessel-tracking data showed traffic remained suppressed, with single-digit numbers of ships transiting in each direction.However, the agency said the US Navy reported higher activity, with commercial traffic averaging more than 20 vessel transits a day over the past week.The differing figures reflect the challenges of assessing shipping activity through the strategic waterway amid heightened security measures and changes in vessel-routing behavior.US forces have redirected 96 commercial vessels as of Sep. 10 as part of efforts to ensure compliance with restrictions, the US Central Command said in an X post. Over 50 vessels carrying humanitarian aid have been permitted to transit.Meanwhile, conditions in the southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb did not change, with no confirmed attacks or disruptions reported during the latest period.Commercial traffic remains below normal levels, consistent with the pattern established after the July 20 Houthi declaration of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and earlier confirmed attacks on vessels in the region.On Thursday, Yemen's Houthis reportedly seized control of the port city of Mocha on Thursday and advanced down the Red Sea coast to strategic islands.Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam posted on X Thursday, saying that operations carried out by the Yemeni armed forces in some coastal areas were a national operation aimed at enforcing Yemeni sovereignty and addressing threats to civil peace.On maritime traffic, Abdulsalam said navigation and international trade through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb were safe and orderly, with no threat from Yemen."As for the freedom of navigation and international trade movement in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, it is safe and orderly, and there is no cause for any international concern regarding it, for it faces no danger from Yemen's side, and the operations currently underway are targeted in accordance with what was previously announced and fall within a defensive framework," according to a translation of Abdulsalam's post on X.Abdulsalam's remarks contrast with the continued caution among ship operators, with reduced traffic through both Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb indicating heightened security concerns and the risk of vessels becoming caught up in regional hostilities.

Oil & Energy

Brent, WTI Surge 7% to Highest Levels Since May on Middle East Uncertainty

Oil & Energy

Market Chatter: Dangote Refinery Buys 16 Million Barrels of Nigerian Crude for October

Nigeria's Dangote refinery has bought at least 16 million barrels of Nigerian crude for October delivery, maintaining recent purchase levels as the 700,000-barrels-per-day plant ramps up processing, Reuters reported on Thursday.The volumes, equivalent to about 520,000 b/d, reportedly include monthly allocations from Nigerian National Petroleum, or NNPC, and crude purchased through a tender.Dangote received 565,000 b/d of Nigerian crude in August, nearly double last year's average, Reuters said, citing Kpler data. NNPC is to supply eight October Nigerian cargoes and one US WTI Midland cargo, while additional spot purchases will bring the total to 16 million barrels.Dangote Refinery and NNPC did not immediately respond to requests for comment from.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)