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EMEA Oil Update: Oil Trims Gains on Hopes of Israel-Iran Ceasefire

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Crude oil prices spiked over 5% before cooling on Monday after Iran announced its latest missile strikes against Israel had concluded and US President Donald Trump indicated both nations are seeking an immediate ceasefire.

Front-month Murban futures were up 0.3% to $90.95 per barrel, while Brent futures added 1.9% to $94.82/bbl.

Earlier in the session, prices gained 5% following a series of fresh Israeli airstrikes on targets in Iran and Lebanon.

While Iran state media reported a halt to active hostilities, Tehran reportedly issued a stark warning of "much more severe and crushing actions" if Israel conducts further aggression, notably in southern Lebanon.

The geopolitical standoff baked a heavy risk premium into oil prices due to disruption to crucial energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, analysts noted.

"Brent crude jumped more than 3% in early Asia trading Monday after Iran fired missiles at Israel. Oil had already been elevated due to the ongoing Iran war disrupting Strait of Hormuz flows, with HSBC describing commodities as being in a super-squeeze," Saxo Bank analysts said.

Trump stated via Truth Social that final peace negotiations are moving forward quickly, though he emphasized that a naval blockade will remain in full force until a final deal is secured.

While the potential for diplomatic breakthroughs capped Monday's initial price rally, analysts warn that the underlying physical market remains tight and highly sensitive to any further shocks.

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