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EMEA Oil Update: Oil Surges to 2-Week High as US-Iran Ceasefire Fractures

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Crude prices rallied to a two-week high on Wednesday after US-Iran peace deal neared collapse, triggered by tit-for-tat military strikes in the Persian Gulf and Washington's immediate revocation of a key Iranian oil sanctions waiver.

Front-month Murban crude futures advanced 5.9% to $73.07 per barrel, while Brent futures climbed 5% to $77.89/bbl and hit their highest since June 22.

Global energy markets experienced renewed volatility as US President Donald Trump declared the interim memorandum of understanding with Iran is "over" on Wednesday.

UK Maritime Trade Operations confirmed that two separate commercial tankers transiting the vital choke point sustained minor structural damage after being struck by unmanned aerial vehicles.

The US Central Command launched retaliatory military strikes against regional targets in response to Iran's attacks on three transiting tankers.

Meanwhile, Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps reportedly struck US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait with drones and missiles in retaliation for American airstrikes.

"The renewed attacks have raised the prospect of a complete collapse of the interim peace deal and a subsequent stalling of the recovery in oil supplies from the Persian Gulf," ANZ analysts said.

Simultaneously, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control revoked the sanctions waiver that had previously authorized the sale of Iranian-origin oil.

Under the newly issued directive, all new transactions for Iranian oil are prohibited, truncating a sanctions relief window that was originally scheduled to run through August 21.

Parties who entered contracts under the prior framework have been handed a tight timeline to wind down existing obligations.

"As President Trump and the administration have repeatedly affirmed, the MOU in effect with Iran is entirely performance-based," a White House official said in an emailed statement to, adding that Iran will only reap benefits if they exhibit "good behavior".

On the supply side, the US Energy Information Administration "expects worldwide crude oil production and trade flows to rebound to near pre-conflict levels by year's end, with most previously shut in production returning online by the first quarter of 2027," in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook .

The oil market now awaits the US EIA's petroleum inventory report, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

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US Treasury Revokes Iran Oil Sales Authorization, Sets July 17 Wind-Down Deadline

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