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EMEA Oil Update: Oil Supply Surges as US-Iran Peace Deal Takes Effect

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Crude oil prices hovered near a three-months low after the US-Iran interim peace deal reopened the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping, paving the way for millions of barrels of stranded oil to enter the global market.

The Brent futures contract edged up 0.4% at $80.16 per barrel but was still down to early-March levels. Murban futures closed at its lowest since late February at $73.93/bbl on June 18 and were not trading by the time of publication of this oil price update.

"Crude oil prices resumed their downward path as the US-Iran interim peace deal took effect and Persian Gulf oil supplies resumed flows," ANZ analysts said.

"According to ship tracking data, at least four supertankers, including three controlled by Saudi Arabia's Bahri, were observed leaving the strait, along with a ship carrying LNG and a Chinese fuel tanker," ANZ added.

The US Central Command confirmed said that it has ended its naval blockade around Iranian ports and coastal regions.

According to energy consultancy Kpler, this influx of supply could significantly alter previous market forecasts.

The firm noted that the peace deal may limit the projected 2026 global oil demand decline to roughly 700,000 b/d, a sharp shift from the 1.2 million barrels per day drop they anticipated earlier this month.

Market experts note that the Strait of Hormuz is currently operating in a highly complex and fragmented manner.

"Now begins the difficult period of negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program, which will see some level of caution remain," ANZ said.

Meanwhile, in a post on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump stated that Washington is pushing for a wider resolution across the region.

Trump said that the US expects a complete ceasefire on all active fronts, specifically naming Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah, as diplomatic talks move forward.

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