FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

EMEA Oil Update: Oil Rebounds as Iran Reportedly Hardens Uranium Stance

By

Crude oil benchmarks jumped on Thursday, after reports emerged that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei banned the sending of weapons-grade uranium abroad.

Front-month Murban crude futures gained 2.6% to $105.92 per barrel, while Brent futures added 1.8% to $106.90/bbl.

Supporting prices, a Reuters report citing senior Iranian insiders, revealed that Khamenei issued a strict directive banning the export of the country's near-weapons-grade enriched uranium.

This counters a non-negotiable demand from US President Donald Trump, who had previously assured Israel that any comprehensive peace agreement would mandate the complete extraction of highly-enriched material from Iranian territory.

The severity of the global energy crisis resulting from the Iran war could yet push oil prices to $200 per barrel under a worst-case scenario, Wood Mackenzie said in a note.

The regional conflict is currently holding back more than 11 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf crude and condensate, alongside roughly 80 million tonnes per annum of liquefied natural gas representing 20% of the world's total gas supply.

However, on Wednesday, Trump said that negotiations with Iran are in their "final stages," raising optimism about a deal.

"Oil prices sold off heavily yesterday, with hopes growing once again for a potential US-Iran agreement," ING analysts said. Brent futures dropped more than 5% on Wednesday.

Analysts at ING noted that while the market has been burned by false breakthroughs before, it remains highly reactive due to the sheer significance of ongoing supply disruptions.

On the supply side, the US Energy Information Administration noted that US crude oil inventories decreased by 7.9 million barrels to 445 million barrels for the week ended May 15.

Related Articles

Oil & Energy

Market Chatter: Saudi Arabia Oil Export Income Hits 3-Year High in March as Prices Surge

Saudi Arabia's oil export revenue has hit a three-year high at $24.7 billion in March, the first full month of conflict in the Middle East, Bloomberg reported, as it was able to avoid the Strait of Hormuz to continue supplying importers.Saudi revenue from crude and refined product exports rose 37% versus March of 2025, the General Authority for Statistics said, the article said. That was the highest for any month since Oct. 2022 and was also inflated by the surging price of oil.The news agency said the rise in oil price benchmarks was 43% in March, after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following Iranian threats against ships attempting to sail through it, cut of an estimated 20% of the world's hydrocarbons supplies.Saudi Arabia was fortunate in comparison to some Gulf nations, in that it could make use of a pipeline crossing the country to pump exports to the Red Sea and for despatch to importers.As a result, its export volumes had recovered to about 70% of pre-war levels by the end of March, it said.has contacted Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy to seek comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy

Hormuz Oil Deficit Expected to Linger Into 2027 Warns ADNOC Chief

Global oil flows through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz will not fully recover until the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the Middle East conflict ends immediately, according to the head of the UAE's state oil firm, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.Speaking at a live-streamed Atlantic Council event, Sultan Al Jaber, Managing Director and Group CEO of ADNOC, delivered a grim mid-term assessment for global energy networks, warning that a post-conflict operational recovery will face major delays.The technical and logistical realities of restarting transit mean that it will require a minimum of four months just to restore shipping volumes to 80% of their pre-war capacity once a resolution is reached, Al Jaber said.The maritime chokepoint, which normally facilitates the transit of roughly one-fifth of the world's daily petroleum supply, remains at a standstill with shippers unwilling to cross with the threat of Iranian attacks on any that do.This blockade has restricted global supplies, triggering a prolonged surge in global energy benchmarks, compounding international inflationary pressures and heightening fears of a broader macroeconomic downturn.Al Jaber strongly condemned the current maritime restrictions, labeling Iran's blockade of the international waterway a "dangerous precedent" that threatens the core principles of global freedom of navigation.The alarming timeline outlined by the UAE's top energy official aligns closely with warnings issued by state-backed producers in neighboring countries.Amin Nasser, Chief Executive of Saudi Arabian oil giant Aramco, previously cautioned that the international oil market might fail to achieve supply rebalancing before 2027 if the current security gridlock persists.

Oil & Energy

Market Chatter: China Solar Exports to Africa, Southeast Asia Surge in April Despite Higher Prices

China's solar equipment exports to Africa and Southeast Asian countries continued to surge year-over-year in April, despite a rise in prices, amid soaring appetite for renewables worldwide, according to a Reuters report, citing China's customs data.The export of solar panels and cells to African nations during the month stood at 123,787 metric tons, up 83% from the prior year, but a decline of 40% from its peak of 209,474 tons in March.That March surge was primarily attributed to global buyers rushing to buy Chinese solar products before the expiry of the country's export tax refund policy on April 1.Exports to Southeast Asia similarly saw a year-over-year surge of 75%, at 170,733 tons in April, which was again below March figures at 336,891 tons.The Netherlands remained the largest importer by volume, reinforcing its role as a major transshipment hub for Europe. Shipments to the country totaled 177,391 tons, worth $380.8 million, down 2.5% from a year earlier.Ranked second, the Philippines nearly quadrupled its imports year-over-year in March to 111,599 tons and more than doubled them in April to 56,744 tons versus April 2025.In Africa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Africa emerged as leading buyers, with total volumes surging 482% and 81.4%, compared to the prior year, respectively.The China Photovoltaic Industry Association did not immediately respond to' request for a comment on this story.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)