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EMEA Oil Update: Oil Markets Mixed as OPEC Cuts Demand Growth Outlook

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Crude prices diverged on Thursday, with Brent softening as traders weighed lower 2026 demand forecasts from OPEC against ongoing maritime supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures contract dipped 2.1% to $87.14 per barrel, while Murban crude futures edged up 0.3% to $90.33/bbl.

"Oil prices are easing despite no breakthrough in US-Iran discussions," ING analysts noted.

OPEC lowered its world oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day in its monthly market report, while the International Energy Agency projected a consumption contraction of 1.6 million barrels per day this year as higher prices and supply restrictions tied to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran weigh heavily on consumption.

Geopolitical tensions and maritime bottlenecks continued to shape trading dynamics.

Latest MarineTraffic data showed that commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased slightly, with 14 vessels crossing on Tuesday compared to 12 on Monday, though the uptick did little to signal a return to normal conditions amid persistent security risks.

Reinforcing these structural shifts, Argus Media announced on Wednesday the launch of the first price assessments for Abu Dhabi offshore crude loaded via ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman as Hormuz closures reshape regional trade routes.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump asserted on Truth Social that the US maintains "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz through a naval blockade he described as a "wall of steel."

On the supply side, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 mmbbls in the week ended Aug. 7, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.

"A massive EIA crude inventory build of 17.4 million barrels - the largest weekly move since January 2023 - was largely absorbed by the market, with analysts viewing it as an import-export dislocation rather than a demand deterioration," Saxo Bank analysts noted.

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US Oil Update: Crude Little Changed as Markets Weigh US-Iran Talks, Weak Demand

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Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb Traffic Edge Up as Security Risks Keep Shipping on Edge

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