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EMEA Oil Update: Oil Futures Rise After Trump Warning to Iran

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Crude oil prices gained on Wednesday following a warning by US President Donald Trump to Iran that added to geopolitical tensions fueled by Iranian strikes on US-linked targets across Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan.

Front-month Murban crude futures were up 1% to $89.16 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 0.8% at $92.17/bbl.

Trump on Wednesday warned that Iran will have to pay the price after having taken too long to negotiate a peace deal, in a further escalation in the Iran conflict, Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

"Traders appear increasingly reluctant to chase prices higher despite the ongoing Middle East conflict, mindful that any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a temporary flood of crude oil and fuel exports," Saxo Bank analysts said.

However, "The prospect of a sudden release of pent-up supply has tempered bullish sentiment and reduced the market's sensitivity to geopolitical headlines," they added.

On the supply side, data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed Tuesday that US crude oil inventories dropped by 9.12 million barrels in the week ended June 5, according to a Bloomberg-compiled survey.

The oil market now awaits the US Energy Information Administration's petroleum inventory report, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the EIA released its June Short-Term Energy Outlook, trimming its 2026 global oil demand forecast by 1.1 million barrels per day relative to 2025, citing high fuel retail prices and government conservation mandates.

The agency models that restricted shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz will begin incrementally resuming in the third quarter of 2026.

However, the EIA warned that navigating back to pre-conflict traffic thresholds will take several months, projecting that a complete logistics recovery may drag into early 2027 while some regional production outages persist indefinitely.

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