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EMEA Oil Update: Murban Futures Rally as US-Iran Ceasefire Expires

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Oil prices climbed on Monday with Murban crude futures gaining more than 6% as the official expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire and stalled diplomatic efforts heightened supply anxieties.

Brent futures gained 1% to $89.38 per barrel, while Murban crude futures jumped to $95.66 per barrel.

Analysts at SEB noted that the official expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire has brought renewed friction, following US President Donald Trump's declaration that the Strait of Hormuz could soon become US territory, a statement countered by Iranian officials saying that "The Strait of Hormuz cannot be seized by tweet."

Market sentiment remains tightly linked to regional conflict, highlighted by the deadliest day of fighting in Lebanon in months following Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in the south, complicating broader paths toward a diplomatic resolution, Commerzbank analysts noted.

They said the dominant driver today is the expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, with bilateral negotiations currently at a standstill and Washington preparing fresh sanctions.

Physical disruption worsened over the weekend. A bulk carrier was reportedly struck by a projectile, and multiple vessels belonging to a major Abu Dhabi energy company were hit in separate incidents within the Strait of Hormuz.

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