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EMEA Oil Update: Murban Futures Edge Higher as Brent Holds Steady

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Murban crude edged higher on Tuesday while Brent futures were steady after data revealed a drop in US crude stockpiles as the Energy Information Administration said it was lowering its global demand forecasts for this year.

Front-month Murban crude futures were up 0.8% to $88.90 per barrel, while Brent futures were steady at $91.45/bbl.

"Traders appear increasingly reluctant to chase prices higher despite the ongoing Middle East conflict, mindful that any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a temporary flood of crude oil and fuel exports," Saxo Bank analysts said.

"The prospect of a sudden release of pent-up supply has tempered bullish sentiment and reduced the market's sensitivity to geopolitical headlines," they added.

On the supply side, data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed Tuesday that US crude oil inventories dropped by 9.12 million barrels in the week ended June 5, according to a Bloomberg-compiled survey.

The oil market now awaits the US Energy Information Administration's petroleum inventory report, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the EIA released its June Short-Term Energy Outlook, trimming its 2026 global oil demand forecast by 1.1 million barrels per day relative to 2025, citing high fuel retail prices and reduced fuel availability.

The agency models that restricted shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz will begin incrementally resuming in the third quarter of 2026.

However, the EIA warned that navigating back to pre-conflict traffic thresholds will take several months, projecting that a complete logistics recovery may drag into early 2027 while some regional production outages persist indefinitely.

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