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EMEA Oil Update: Crude Rises on Fresh US-Iran Hostilities, Tanker Attacks Revive Supply Fears

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(now tracks Dubai First Line futures as Adnoc phases out Murban.)

EMEA crude futures settled higher in after-hours trading on Tuesday as escalating hostilities between the US and Iran and fresh attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz revived concerns over further supply disruptions.

Brent crude futures gained 2.4% to $92.67 per barrel, while ICE Dubai First Line (Platts) energy futures were up 2.9% to $87.84/bbl.

US forces launched fresh strikes on Iran on Tuesday, with Iranian state media also reporting multiple explosions.

"Today at 12 p.m. ET, US forces began striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in Iran. The strikes follow recent attempted attacks by the IRGC against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and against American service members deployed to the region," US Central Command posted on X on Tuesday.

Saxo Bank strategists said that crude rose for a second session as fresh hostilities between the US and Iran raised concerns about prolonged disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain high after President Trump reportedly threatened Tehran with further strikes on Monday.

On Monday, Iran launched an attack on American bases in Jordan and the UAE in retaliation for the US strike on the country's Larak Island.

The US forces targeted two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island on Sunday, claiming that Tehran intended to launch rockets carrying sea mines into the strait.

Fueling bullish sentiment, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Center said that a tanker was struck by three unknown projectiles while transiting Hormuz on Monday. The maritime security agency said the tanker was sailing in the southern shipping lane near the Omani coast.

The UKMTO also said that it had received a report of an incident involving a tanker and military forces in the Indian Ocean, off the Omani coast.

Soojin Kim, a research analyst at MUFG, said that shipping conditions remain fragile, with another tanker reportedly attacked near Oman, although Gulf producers continue to export through the Strait of Hormuz despite elevated risks.

Commercial shipping through the strategic waterway plunged by half at the end of August, the latest data from Kpler showed on Tuesday, with five confirmed vessel crossings on Aug. 31, down from 10 a day earlier. Four vessels entered the Middle East Gulf while one exited.

On the supply side, Asian refiners, led by renewed buying from China, are absorbing an increase in Middle Eastern spot crude offerings, keeping sour-barrel prices elevated despite expectations of greater near-term supply, according to a Kpler analysis.

Middle Eastern producers have stepped up tender activity in recent weeks, offering cargoes loading over the next two to three months, Kpler noted. However, clearing prices have continued to rise, signaling stronger Asian demand is outpacing the increase in available barrels.

Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly told Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday, on the sidelines of a regional security meeting in Kyrgyzstan, that Tehran still sought a negotiated resolution of the conflict.

Pezeshkian said that Iran would immediately reciprocate if the US agreed to return to its commitments under the interim deal signed in June.

Going forward, Kim said that persistent geopolitical tensions and tanker attacks are likely to keep a risk premium embedded in oil prices, with Gulf producers' ability to maintain exports remaining the key factor.

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