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EMEA Oil Update: Crude Rise as US-Iran Conflict Flares, Stoking Supply Fears

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EMEA crude futures advanced in after-hours trading on Thursday as escalating tensions between the US and Iran stoked fears of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, after President Trump warned that Washington would hit Tehran "very hard tonight".

Brent crude futures gained 0.4% to $93.50 per barrel, while Murban crude futures were up 1.6% to $88.59/bbl.

ING strategists said that Trump threatened Iran that more strikes would follow if it didn't agree to a deal, as Tehran vowed to close the Strait of Hormuz until further notice.

On Thursday, Trump said the US would hit Iran very hard tonight after completing a round of airstrikes on Wednesday against the country's surveillance capabilities, communication systems, and air defense sites.

The US President threatened to seize Iran's Kharg Island, the country's crude export terminal, "at some point in the not-too-distant future." The US will seize "total control" of Iran's oil and gas markets like Washington did in Venezuela, Trump said in a Truth Social post.

Soojin Kim, a research analyst at MUFG, said crude prices rose after a second round of US strikes on Iranian targets heightened tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about further disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Earlier on Wednesday, Trump criticized Iranian authorities for stalling peace deal negotiations, saying Tehran will now have to "pay the price".

Iran, in response, struck several US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, including Ali Salem and Ahmad al-Jaber air bases in Kuwait and Sheikh Issa air base in Bahrain. Tehran also carried out missile and drone attacks against US vessels operating in the Hormuz.

Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority announced the closure of the Strait, including for oil tankers and commercial ships, on Thursday, saying vessels attempting passage will come under fire. The strategic waterway handles about 20% of global oil and gas shipments.

Saxo Bank strategists said that the renewed hostilities between the US and Iran threaten to prolong the near-total closure of the Hormuz, which has severely disrupted flows of crude oil, refined fuels, and natural gas since the conflict escalated in late February.

Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its forecast for global crude demand growth in 2026 to 970,000 barrels per day, according to producer group's monthly report published on Thursday.

The current forecast reduced the expected oil demand growth in 2026 from 1.17 million b/d previously forecasted. For 2027, OPEC projected that demand to rise by 1.73 million b/d, up 190,000 b/d from the previous forecast.

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