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EMEA Oil Update: Crude Rallies as Trump Says Iran Ceasefire is Over, Warns of More Attacks

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EMEA crude futures rallied in after-hours trading on Wednesday after President Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire had collapsed and threatened more military action after tensions between the two sides flared up overnight.

Brent crude futures surged by 2.9% to $79.41 per barrel, while Murban crude futures advanced by 9% to $75.20/bbl.

Saxo Bank strategists said crude prices rose after the US struck targets in Iran and revoked a waiver allowing new sales of Iranian oil, in retaliation for Tehran's attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

On Wednesday, Trump said the US' ceasefire with Iran is over, and threatened more military strikes, reviving geopolitical risk premium in prices and stoking fears of supply disruptions.

"We hit them very hard last night, very, very hard, and we'll probably hit them hard again tonight [Wednesday]," the US President said during a press conference in Ankara, Turkey, adding that he no longer wants to deal with the Iranians.

Trump also threatened to bomb Iran again and reimpose the US naval blockade of the country's ports and vessels. The US Central Command said on Wednesday that over 20 Navy warships are patrolling waters across the Middle East.

The US President's remarks followed a fresh flare-up in tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Late on Tuesday night, the US struck over 80 targets in Iran and moved to revoke a waiver that allowed the sale of Iranian oil in response to Iranian attacks on ships near the Hormuz.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in response, targeted US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait early on Wednesday.

The tit-for-tat attacks further undermined the US-Iran ceasefire and dented hopes of translating the memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 into a permanent peace deal to end the conflict.

The General Staff of Kuwaiti Armed Forces confirms that any explosions that may be heard are the result of air defense systems intercepting hostile targets, the Kuwait Army said in a statement on X.

Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that renewed escalation has reignited concerns over supply disruptions through the Hormuz, with attacks on multiple commercial vessels highlighting the continued vulnerability of regional energy infrastructure.

The escalation also stands to complicate the decisions facing shipowners and regional crude producers on how to navigate the Hormuz, with Kpler reporting 41 confirmed crossings on July 7, up from 36 the previous day.

MarineTraffic said routing patterns reflected continued uncertainty, with increased use of International Maritime Organization routes, a high share of Dark or Unknown transits, and declining use of the Omani route.

Curbing the rally, global crude prices are projected to face renewed downward pressure as crude production rebounds and trade flows via the strategic waterway recover, according to the Energy Information Administration.

The EIA said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook that Brent crude averaged $85/bbl in June, down $22 from May and $32 below their April 2026 peak. The agency slashed its Brent forecast for Q3 to an average of $74/bbl, $27 lower than its previous outlook.

The agency said that the recovery in supply and the restoration of oil trade flows is expected to ease pressure on global inventories.

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Update: US Treasury Revokes Iran Oil Sales Authorization, Sets July 17 Wind-Down Deadline

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US Treasury Revokes Iran Oil Sales Authorization, Sets July 17 Wind-Down Deadline

The US revoked its general license authorizing certain Iranian oil transactions and allowed a wind-down period through July 17, the Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control said in a statement on Tuesday.The Department revoked the earlier Iran-related General License X and replaced it with General License X1, effective July 7. The new license replaces the June 21 authorization in its entirety.On June 22, OFAC issued Iran General License X, "Authorizing the Production, Delivery and Sale of Crude Oil, Petrochemical Products, and Petroleum Products of Iranian-Origin through August 21, 2026."However, Tuesday's license has revoked this authorization of new transactions involving the production, purchase, loading, sale, delivery, or offloading of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products on or after July 7, except where necessary to complete the wind-down.The new license also excludes transactions involving parties in North Korea, Cuba, or the covered and Crimea regions of Ukraine, as well as activities prohibited under other applicable sanctions authorities.The US action followed reports from the British navy-linked United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency that commercial tankers sustained damage from unidentified projectiles in and around the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Two strikes on tankers in the strait were reported on Tuesday, while another tanker was hit on Monday.General License X1 authorizes transactions ordinarily necessary to wind down activities previously permitted under General License X through 12:01 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on July 17, provided payments to blocked persons are made into blocked, interest-bearing US accounts.The White House did not immediately respond to' request for comment.Oil markets reacted sharply to the announcement, with Brent crude rising about 5% to $75.58 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate increasing about 4.7% to $71.80/bbl.