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EMEA Oil Update: Crude Plunges as US-Iran Deal Optimism Fuels Supply Concerns

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EMEA crude futures tumbled by over 5% in after-hours trading on Tuesday as growing optimism that the US and Iran could reach a peace deal eased concerns over Middle East supply disruptions and raised the prospect of additional barrels returning to global markets.

Brent crude futures plunged 5.3% to $79.31 per barrel, while Murban crude futures dropped 5.1% to $76.94/bbl.

Gelber & Associates said that the decline extends this week's losses to about 10% after the US postponed additional military action to allow more time for diplomacy.

On Tuesday, Qatar said mediators were making progress in efforts to end the US-Iran conflict, although Tehran has denied President Trump's assertion that talks are already under way.

Trump said on Monday that discussions with Iran were taking place, while accusing Tehran's leadership of being "duplicitous" as he warned that Washington would not allow the country to develop a nuclear weapon.

Dr. Majed bin Mohammed Al Ansari, spokesperson for Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that mediators were consistently working to create the appropriate conditions for the resumption of direct dialogue, noting that the efforts are expected to yield positive outcomes in the near future.

Fueling bearish sentiment, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly said that the US and Iran could reach a deal on Tuesday or Wednesday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with freedom of movement for commercial ships.

Bessent said the warring countries are in talks and there is a chance that a deal could be reached to move toward a more normalized position in the six-month conflict.

Trump said on Sunday that he had called off a planned strike on Iran after receiving a request from Tehran and other countries in the Middle East to allow for negotiations to reopen Hormuz.

"We have previously seen again and again that Trump declares a halt to US attacks and "ongoing negotiations" while Iran then fires yet another set of rockets and drones at US military bases, US Middle East allies or ships sailing through the SoH," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Research.

Traffic through the Middle East energy chokepoints remained subdued, with Kpler data showing a combined 39 confirmed crossings in the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb on Aug. 2. The US Central Command has redirected 44 commercial vessels, disabled 2, and boarded 2 as of Aug. 3.

On Monday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center said that a cargo ship was struck by an unknown projectile about 20 nautical miles northeast of Al Khasab, Oman.

The maritime security agency said Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacks have increased, and harassment activity persists, including hailing and UAV overflight.

On the supply front, OPEC+ approved an oil production quota increase of about 188,000 barrels per day from September on Sunday. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies projected that OPEC+ crude production is now forecast to decline by 4 million barrels per day in 2026, about 500,000 b/d more than previously expected.

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Hormuz Traffic Remains Subdued as US Blockade, Risks Weigh on Shipping

Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained subdued on Aug. 2, while shipping activity via the Bab el-Mandeb also eased, as heightened security risks and military activity continued to disrupt traffic across two of the world's key energy chokepoints.The latest data from MarineTraffic for Aug. 2 showed just nine crossings through the Strait of Hormuz, compared with 23 on July 31 and 11 on Aug. 1."Strait of Hormuz crossings totalled 43 from 31 July to 2 August, with 23 crossings on 31 July, 11 on 1 August and 9 on 2 August," MarineTraffic said.Five vessels exited the Middle East Gulf while four entered on Sunday. Seven ships used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, two followed undetermined routes, and none used the International Maritime Organization's traffic separation scheme.The marine data analysis platform said the daily total included two vessels under sanctions and two ships linked to the shadow fleet.Daily traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb also declined, with 30 crossings recorded on Aug. 2 versus 41 on July 31 and 37 on Aug. 1.Marine Traffic said that 20 vessels exited the Red Sea while 10 entered. One vessel conducted a dark transit with its Automatic Identification System switched off, while two sanctioned vessels and three shadow fleet ships were identified.Meanwhile, subdued traffic comes as US military continues to enforce a blockade targeting Iranian shipping.The US Central Command said that, as of Aug. 3, it had redirected 44 commercial vessels, disabled two vessels and boarded another two as part of blockade enforcement operations.The Joint Maritime Information Center said traffic via the Hormuz remained at reduced levels, with independent tracking data showing only single-digit tanker movements in both directions.The maritime security agency said that shipping companies continue to delay or reschedule voyages following earlier attacks in the region, while a significant number of vessels have been transiting with AIS signals switched off, reducing visibility for commercial tracking systems.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continued to disrupt vessels through radio hailing, unmanned aerial vehicle overflights and surveillance operations, while warning that drifting or uncharted mines remained a threat near the traffic separation scheme.Shipping in the southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb continued despite elevated security concerns following a previously confirmed Houthi attack on a Saudi-flagged tanker.The UK Maritime Trade Operations said the Houthis have reiterated warnings that the Bab el-Mandeb is closed to Saudi-affiliated vessels. However, the Houthi-controlled Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center said passage remains free for non-Saudi and non-coalition ships, the maritime security agency said.On Thursday, Saudi Arabia's defense ministry said it is considering setting up a 43-nation maritime coalition to protect freedom of navigation, energy infrastructure and commercial shipping across the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden through joint patrols, intelligence sharing and enhanced maritime surveillance.The UKMTO said that open-source tracking continued to show daily Bab el-Mandeb transits ranging between 20 and 40 vessels, though volumes fluctuate from day to day.Coalition naval forces remain deployed across the area, the UKMTO said.

Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Crude Slides as Trump, Iran Send Mixed Signals on Peace Talks

Crude futures settled lower in after-hours trading on Monday as markets weighed conflicting signals from President Trump and Iranian officials over the prospects for peace talks, adding uncertainty to the outlook for Middle East conflict and crude supplies.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures tumbled by 5.4% to $80.06 per barrel, while Brent futures retreated by 4.7% to $83.77/bbl.Saxo Bank strategists said crude oil traded lower on Monday after Trump chose not to pursue further attacks against Iran over the weekend, though prices rebounded from intraday lows.President Trump said on Monday that talks with Iran were underway, warning that it was a "last chance" for Tehran to sign a good deal to end the five-month-old war.Earlier on Monday, Trump alleged Iranian leaders were being "duplicitous," warning that the US would not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.The US President said Iran had sought a meeting with US officials and that talks had begun, with additional discussions expected in the near future.On Sunday, the US President said that he had called off a planned strike on Iran after receiving a request from Tehran and other countries in the Middle East.Gelber & Associates strategists said that crude is trading near $79.60/bbl as the market unwinds a portion of its geopolitical risk premium following the cancellation of planned US strikes on Iran and renewed hopes for negotiations over the Hormuz.Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei's remarks contrasted with Trump, saying Tehran was only holding talks with Oman on what route ships can sail through the Hormuz, and it was not currently engaged in negotiations with the US."The understanding with Oman on a safe shipping route is a necessary condition for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but it is not a sufficient one," Baghaei said.On the supply front, OPEC+ approved an oil production quota increase of about 188,000 barrels per day from September on Sunday. The producer group has raised quotas each month throughout the Middle East conflict, even as supply from the region remains constrained by disruption at Hormuz.The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies projected that OPEC+ crude production is now forecast to decline by 4 million b/d in 2026, about 500,000 b/d more than previously expected.Traffic through the Middle East energy chokepoints remained subdued, with Kpler data showing a combined 39 confirmed crossings in the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb on Aug. 2.The US Central Command has redirected 44 commercial vessels, disabled two, and boarded two as of Aug. 3.

Oil & Energy

Trump Calls Iran Talks 'Last Chance' as Strait of Hormuz Reopening Tops Agenda

US President Donald Trump said Monday that Iran negotiations are continuing after he delayed planned military action, calling the talks Tehran's "last chance" while prioritizing reopening the Strait of Hormuz.The president made the remarks while speaking to reporters after signing an executive order at the White House.Trump said US and Iranian officials currently remain in talks despite Tehran's earlier public denials. "We're talking, and we're talking at the request of Iran, backed by Saudi Arabia, backed by UAE, and backed by Qatar in particular, but others also," he said.He said the US had prepared a major military strike before postponing the operation after Iran sought negotiations."We were going to hit them very hard yesterday [Sunday]...," he said, adding, "... this is a last chance for them to sign a good document."Trump said he still has military options available but prefers diplomacy. "I want to give them every last chance before decapitation," he added.Trump said reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains the immediate priority. "We're talking about the Strait... having it open literally by tomorrow, completely open, and that's phase one," he said.He said negotiations would then shift to Iran's nuclear program. "The second phase will be the denuclearization and that'll take a little while," Trump said.Asked whether Iran could impose transit charges in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump rejected the idea. "I'm not going to let them charge," he said."If anybody's going to charge, we'll charge," Trump said, adding the US has "total control" of the waterway.Trump also linked a potential agreement with lower energy prices. "You're going to see oil, when we're finished with Iran, you're going to see the prices drop through the floor," he said.He criticized major US oil producers for reporting strong earnings. "They're making too much money... they better cut the retail price, the consumer price," Trump said of Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).Trump also urged the UK to expand North Sea oil production, arguing the country could sharply reduce energy costs."You could cut them [prices] in half. You could give away free energy if you'd open up the North Sea ...," he said.

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