FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Pares Gains After Iran, Israel Pause Attacks

By

EMEA crude futures pared gains in after-hours trading on Monday, retreating from earlier gains, after Iran and Israel signaled a pause in tit-for-tat attacks, easing immediate fears of a wider regional escalation that had threatened to further disrupt energy supplies.

Brent crude futures were up 1.8% to $94.82 per barrel, while Murban crude futures were up 1.2% to $91.77/bbl.

Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt energy flows via the Strait of Hormuz, while tensions involving Lebanon and Hezbollah remain a major obstacle to a broader settlement.

Iranian and Israeli officials reportedly said on Monday that the two sides had halted attacks on each other after an appeal from President Trump that they immediately stop shooting. However, Iran said it would resume strikes if Jerusalem continued to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Trump said in a social media post on Truth Social that both sides were considering an immediate ceasefire, as final peace negotiations proceed, "subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way."

On Sunday, Iran fired missiles towards Israeli territory, calling them retaliation for Israeli attacks on strongholds of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah near Beirut.

Israel, in response, hit a petrochemical plant in southwest Iran that it said was used to produce ballistic missiles. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards said it had retaliated with a strike aimed at a similar Israeli plant in the port city of Haifa.

Erik Meyersson, chief EM strategist at SEB Research, said this is the most significant escalation since the April ceasefire as the conflict passes its 100-day mark today.

The ongoing conflict has led to the dual closure of the Hormuz, curtailing supplies of crude oil, fuel, and natural gas to global customers.

Trump said that the US blockade of the Strait would remain in place and in full force until a final deal is reached.

Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthi rebels said that they would impose a complete ban on Israeli vessels in the Red Sea, according to media reports. The Houthis said that any Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea will be considered a military target and will be struck.

On the supply side, OPEC+ agreed to increase targets by 188,000 barrels per day from July, according to an OPEC statement, marking the fourth oil output quota hike approved since the outbreak of the conflict.

The increase is on par with June's, which was lowered from monthly increases of 206,000 b/d in May and April following the UAE's departure from the producer group.

The European Union sanctioned two Iranian individuals and a unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard on Monday for threatening the freedom of maritime traffic in Hormuz. The EU blacklisted the Hormozgan Provincial Command of the IRGC Navy, as well as Mohammad Akbarzadeh and Hamid Hosseini.

Related Articles

Oil & Energy

Weekly Oil Update: Middle East Friction, US Stockpile Drop Boost Prices

Crude oil benchmarks reverse a two-week decline to finish higher this week as traders price in a fresh geopolitical premium, while ongoing US-Iran peace talks face structural friction, keeping global supply tightness firmly in place.West Texas Intermediate settled at $90.25 per barrel, up from $87.76/bbl the previous week, while Brent closed at $93.03/bbl, down from $91.99/bbl a week earlier.Brent futures were seen gaining more than 3% week-over-week while WTI benchmarks added over 6% so far on a weekly basis.The week began with a sudden price surge following heavy weekend military exchanges, where US Central Command executed targeted self-defense airstrikes against Iranian radar and drone facilities on Qeshm Island and Goruk.The lack of a definitive breakthrough between the US and Iran has left traders cautious about aggressively pricing in any immediate return of supply via the Strait of Hormuz.Compounding the geopolitical tension, underlying market fundamentals provide strong structural support to the price rally.The US Energy Information Administration confirms in its weekly report that domestic commercial crude inventories plummeted by a massive 8 million barrels for the week ended May 29, dragging total stockpiles down to 433.7 million barrels.On the demand side, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries expects oil demand growth to remain "robust" despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and will maintain its estimate of 1.2 million barrels per day for this year, Reuters reported Thursday, citing Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais."Looking ahead, our base case continues to assume that the Strait of Hormuz reopens in June. Under that assumption, Brent should average around $100 through the balance of the year, slipping below triple digits on a monthly average basis only in December," J.P. Morgan noted."The alternative remains far less comfortable. If the Strait stays closed beyond June, our framework implies that each additional month of disruption would lift average prices by roughly $5 in 3Q26 and $15 in 4Q26, driven primarily by accelerating inventory depletion," they added.

Oil & Energy

US Sanctions Iranian LPG Smuggling Network, Shadow Fleet

The US is imposing sanctions on a network of individuals, companies, and vessels accused of facilitating hundreds of millions of dollars in Iranian-origin liquefied petroleum gas shipments disguised as Omani cargo, the Treasury Department said on Friday.The Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control said the network used front companies in the UAE and China, along with shadow-fleet vessels and offshore accounts, to move Iranian LPG to buyers in South and East Asia.The Department sanctioned China-based Shanghai Qianye Energy, which it said is linked to Turkish national Mohammad Shakol Mihandoust, alongside Afghan national Sarbaz Abdul Zada, both accused of orchestrating shipments of Iranian LPG to Bangladesh and other regional markets.The US also targeted Iran's shadow fleet of LPG tankers, including the LPG Sevan, Gas Zeina, Glendale, and Mile. The vessels, flagged across jurisdictions including Panama, Palau and St. Kitts and Nevis, are accused of transporting millions of barrels of Iranian-origin LPG.The shipping network also used multiple Marshall Islands- and Liberia-linked management firms to mask ownership and operational control, the Department said in a statement.The Treasury sanctioned Iran-based exchange house Mehrdad Geramian Nik, accusing it of moving hundreds of millions of dollars through offshore accounts on behalf of sanctioned Iranian banks including Bank Mellat, Bank Tejarat and Bank Pasargad.

Oil & Energy

Eskom, ZET Sign Agreement Backing South Africa's Gas-to-Power Plans

Eskom secured foundation customer status at the proposed Zululand Energy Terminal to support its planned 3,000-megawatt gas-to-power program, the companies announced Friday.A newly signed Heads of Agreement establishes a framework for long-term cooperation between Eskom and Zululand Energy Terminal on liquefied natural gas import, storage, and regasification infrastructure, according to the statement.Zululand Energy Terminal, a joint venture involving Vopak Terminal Durban, Reatile Group, and Transnet Pipelines, holds a concession from Transnet National Ports Authority to develop and operate the LNG facility.The partnership aims to expand South Africa's gas infrastructure network, strengthen energy security, and support economic growth while providing flexible generation capacity to complement renewable energy sources, the statement said.Eskom plans to build and operate its 3,000-megawatt Richards Bay gas-to-power project in the Richards Bay Industrial Development Zone in KwaZulu-Natal, using regasified LNG as the plant's primary fuel.The project is expected to operate for 25 years as a mid-merit power plant and holds strategic integrated project status under the Infrastructure Development Act 23 of 2014 and the Integrated Resource Plan 2025.Eskom Group Chief Executive Dan Marokane said securing foundation customer status at the terminal provides a key enabler for the company's 3,000-megawatt gas program, which is intended to support grid reliability and renewable energy integration.Zululand Energy Terminal Director Oliver Naidu said Eskom's participation strengthens the terminal's commercial foundation and supports plans to reach a terminal use agreement, achieve financial close and deliver South Africa's first LNG import terminal.South Africa's Integrated Resource Plan 2025 targets 6,000 MW of gas-fired capacity by 2030, including 3,000 MW from the gas independent power producer program and 3,000 MW from Eskom, while also using gas to improve grid stability, reduce diesel consumption and address the country's anticipated gas supply shortfall.