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EMEA Oil Update: Crude Mixed as US Stockpile Gains, Weak Demand Weigh

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EMEA crude futures diverged in after-hours trading on Wednesday as the market weighed a surprise build in US crude inventories and concerns about a weak global demand outlook against attacks on ships in the Middle East and stalled US-Iran talks.

Brent crude futures slipped 0.12% to $88.78 per barrel, while Murban crude futures were up 0.44% to $89.49/bbl.

Gelber & Associates strategists said that a reported build in US crude inventories is limiting the upside, although declines in gasoline and distillate stocks point to firmer demand for refined products.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday slashed its global oil demand growth forecasts for the fourth straight month for 2026, projecting demand to grow by 600,000 barrels per day year-over-year.

The reduction is 200,000 b/d less than its July forecast of 800,000 b/d, already down from 1 million b/d in June, 1.2 mmbbl/d in May, and 1.4 mmbbl/d in April.

The International Energy Agency also expects global demand to contract in 2026 by 1.6 million b/d, steeper than the about 1 million b/d drop seen last month.

The IEA on Wednesday said that the global demand outlook is forecast to decline by 510,000 b/d more than the agency's July estimate, as the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and elevated fuel prices continue to weigh on oil consumption.

The agency projected an oil market deficit of 1.8 million b/d over July-September, marking a 1 million b/d downward revision from its July forecast.

Capping crude gains, US commercial crude oil inventories rose by 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 mmbbls in the week ended Aug. 7, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday. The larger-than-expected build is above Investing.com's estimate of a 1.7-mmbbl draw for the week.

Meanwhile, President Trump said on Wednesday the US has "total control" of the Hormuz and expects to maintain control as Pakistan, the mediator between the two countries, reportedly said the deadline for a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran could be extended.

"The USA has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I think we will keep it! Our naval blockade is being called, by everyone, 'a wall of steel', and there is nothing Iran can do about it," Trump said in a Truth Social post.

Tensions around the Middle East energy chokepoints remain elevated on Aug. 11, though the number of confirmed crossings increased, with Hormuz recording 14 crossings, up 16.7% day on day, while Bab el-Mandeb traffic rose 14.3% to 40 crossings.

Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that despite signs of diplomatic progress, uncertainty over the timing and terms of a Hormuz agreement is likely to keep a substantial geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.

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