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EMEA Oil Update: Crude Mixed Ahead of OPEC+ Sunday Meeting

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(We now track Dubai First Line (Platts) energy futures as Adnoc phases out Murban.)

Crude benchmarks were mixed on Friday as military exchanges in the Persian Gulf threatened a fragile recovery in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ahead of Sunday's OPEC+ ministerial meeting.

Brent crude futures fell 0.9% at $94.63 per barrel, while Dubai First Line Futures (Platts) were steady at $84.11/bbl, with both benchmarks headed for a weekly gain.

"Oil prices are still holding most of their recent gains, but those could prove fragile. If Strait of Hormuz flows continue uninterrupted despite the latest escalation, the upward pressure on prices may begin to fade," ING analysts said.

On the geopolitical front, Iran's military reportedly stated it targeted US bases in Kuwait and the UAE, prompting Kuwaiti authorities to report responses to incoming missile and drone threats.

"The tit-for-tat exchange of strikes is raising concerns of a reversal of the recent recovery in oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz," ANZ analysts said.

Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was subdued on Thursday amid continued disruption at one of the world's key energy chokepoints.

UK Maritime Trade Operations reported one confirmed attack during the 48-hour reporting period, involving a Saudi oil tanker.

"The oil market has been operating under the assumption that the impact of the conflict on oil flows has peaked and that a peace deal would eventually see exports back to normal before the year's end. The prospect of an extended conflict will keep the oil flow constrained for the foreseeable future," ANZ analysts added.

Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco kept its October official selling price for flagship Arab Light crude unchanged at a $2 per barrel discount to the Oman/Dubai average.

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