EMEA crude futures held steady in after-hours trading on Thursday as renewed hostilities between the US and Iran continue to cloud the outlook for transit through the Middle East region's critical oil export routes.
Brent crude futures shed 0.01% to $84.88 per barrel, while Murban crude futures eased by 0.75% to $79.14/bbl.
Gelber & Associates said that markets have largely absorbed the geopolitical premium tied to US strikes on Iranian targets and the heightened naval presence around the Hormuz, with no confirmed disruption to physical oil flows preventing prices from pushing higher.
On Thursday, Iran warned that it would "crush" key targets in the Middle East if President Trump's threats to target the country's infrastructure in the coming days are carried out.
Iran's military command's spokesperson, Ebrahim Zolfaqari, reportedly said that if the recent "empty threats" by the US president to have US forces target Iran's infrastructure are carried out, then all infrastructure throughout the region will be "smashed" by Iran.
Iran also requested Yemen's Houthi rebels to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the US strikes Iranian power infrastructure, according to media reports, which would further threaten global energy supplies, according to Reuters.
RBC Capital Markets strategists said a potential new front in the Red Sea is compounding geopolitical tensions.
Saudi Arabia has increased crude exports through its East-West Pipeline and Yanbu terminal to around 4 million b/d to offset reduced Hormuz flows, making the Red Sea a critical alternative export route.
The consultancy said any renewed Houthi attacks on shipping or Saudi energy infrastructure could threaten that capacity and significantly worsen supply risks.
US Central Command said on Wednesday it carried out a fresh wave of attacks on Iran overnight that concluded at 9 p.m. ET, hitting Iranian coastal defenses and missile sites after reimposing a naval blockade of the country's ports.
"US forces struck Iranian command centers, air defense sites, missile and drone capabilities, and coastal surveillance facilities to further degrade Iran's ability to threaten innocent mariners crewing commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz," US Centcom said in a statement posted on X.
Meanwhile, the renewed US-Iran conflict has disrupted energy flows through the Hormuz, with the latest data from Kpler showing that confirmed crude and condensate transit through the strategic waterway fell 62% to 4.1 million barrels per day, while regional loadings dropped 47%.
Renewed attacks, enforcement of the US blockade, and a shrinking pool of conventional tanker operators are weakening confidence, Kpler said.