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EMEA Oil Update: Crude Gains as US-Iran Tensions Stoke Supply Disruption Fears

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EMEA crude futures advanced by over 2% in after-hours trading on Wednesday as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East stoked supply disruptions, after President Trump said that Iran will "pay the price" for stalling peace talks.

Brent crude futures gained 2.7% to $93.88 per barrel, while Murban crude futures were up 1% to $89.16/bbl.

Saxo Bank strategists said that the latest modest rebound was triggered by renewed US and Iranian attacks that once again challenged an already fragile ceasefire.

On Wednesday, Trump criticized Iranian authorities for stalling peace deal negotiations, saying Tehran will now have to "pay the price", without specifying what actions Washington planned to take.

His remarks on Truth Social came amid renewed attacks overnight, further straining a fragile ceasefire between the two sides.

The US military struck Iranian targets after Trump vowed on Tuesday to respond to the downing of an American Apache helicopter, the US Central Command said in a social media post on X.

Later in the day, US Central Command said it had struck a tanker off the coast of Oman, an attack that led to two crew members missing and one casualty, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations.

Iran, in response, targeted several Gulf countries, with Jordan's military saying it had intercepted five Iranian missiles, while Bahrain sounded alarms and Kuwait activated its air defenses to intercept "hostile aerial targets."

Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that the latest escalation threatens to prolong restrictions on traffic via the Strait of Hormuz, while declining US crude inventories underscore tightening supply conditions.

For now, the Hormuz remains effectively blocked, subject to the dual blockade by the US and Iran. Saxo Bank said that traders appear reluctant to chase prices higher despite the ongoing Middle East conflict, mindful that any reopening of the Hormuz could trigger a temporary flood of crude oil and fuel exports.

Fueling bullish sentiment, US crude oil inventories decreased by 7.2 million barrels to 426.5 mmbbls in the week ended June 5, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.

The agency said that US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories dropped to 349.2 mmbbls for the week ended June 5, down from 357.1 mmbbls a week ago, marking a weekly decline of 7.9 mmbbls.

The EIA projected in its Short-Term Energy Outlook that global oil demand is now expected to fall by 1.1 million b/d in 2026, compared with 2025 levels of 104.0 million b/d.

However, crude demand is projected to recover in 2027 as supply flows normalize, with global consumption forecast to rise by 2.5 million b/d to 105.3 million b/d.

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