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EMEA Oil Update: Crude Futures Diverge as Markets Monitor Risks to US-Iran Agreement

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Crude oil futures moved in mixed directions on Friday as markets balanced the recovery of Persian Gulf oil flows with lingering geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures climbed by 0.85% to $80.53 per barrel in the after-market hours, while Murban oil futures shed 1.39% to $72.90/bbl.

Oil prices found support after reports indicated planned US-Iran nuclear talks would not begin on Friday. The delay followed disagreements linked to Israel's military actions and its presence in Lebanon.

Market sentiment has improved since maritime traffic began returning to the Strait of Hormuz. However, investors remain cautious as the interim agreement between Washington and Tehran faces early challenges, according to Saxo Bank.

The reopening of the strait has already triggered a broad decline in oil prices over the week. Brent has fallen about 9% toward $79/bbl as stranded cargoes resumed movement and major producers prepared to restore output, according to MUFG Research.

Tanker traffic through Hormuz has started to recover after the removal of US restrictions on Iranian port access and efforts to improve shipping safety. Even so, producers still need time to restart fields, repair infrastructure and rebuild confidence in shipping routes, MUFG Research said.

Iran has eased restrictions on vessel movements through the strait, allowing several tankers to leave the Gulf. Ship-tracking data showed multiple supertankers, an LNG carrier and a Chinese fuel tanker among vessels resuming transit, according to Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank.

Kuwait has already begun restoring production that was halted during the disruption. Kuwait Petroleum expects output to reach 2 million barrels per day within a week, although shipping companies continue to monitor mine-clearing operations and the durability of the 60-day agreement, Hynes added.

US Central Command said Thursday that US forces had ended maritime blockade enforcement around Iranian ports, adding that naval assets would remain nearby to "make sure that all aspects of the agreement are adhered to, obeyed and in full force and effect," according to a post on X.

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