FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Extends Gain on Renewed US-Iran Conflict

By

(As Adnoc is phasing out Murban, we are updating our benchmark focus to track Dubai first line futures.)

Oil prices advanced for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, as renewed military clashes between US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz revived supply disruption fears.

Brent crude futures gained 0.7% to $91.13 per barrel, while ICE Dubai First Line (Platts) energy futures were trading nearly 2% higher at $87.01/bbl, its highest since early June.

"Crude rose for a second session as fresh hostilities between the US and Iran raised concerns about prolonged disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz," Saxo Bank analysts said.

"Brent traded back above $91 after US forces struck an island in the Strait, prompting Iran to retaliate with attacks on the UAE and Jordan," they added.

The renewed friction follows recent direct exchanges, the first in a month, after US forces struck an Iranian island and threatened Kharg Island, prompting retaliatory Iranian attacks targeting the UAE and Jordan.

President Donald Trump subsequently warned of further potential strikes, shifting the geopolitical landscape back from a localized economic standoff to active military confrontation.

Despite persistent security risks highlighted by a supertanker fire caused by naval mines, physical crude continues to transit the Strait of Hormuz .

"Crude still transits the Strait of Hormuz despite a supertanker fire caused by naval mines, and Russian strikes on refineries appear to be tightening global refining capacity and lifting fuel margins," Saxo Bank analysts added.

Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. has reportedly restored its major Ruwais refinery to full operating capacity of 922,000 barrels a day following earlier war-related damages, successfully boosting exports of refined products like diesel and jet fuel.

The US Department of Energy's Strategic Petroleum Reserve data released Monday showed that SPR inventory levels as of Aug. 28 stood at 286.6 million barrels, down 3.1 mmbbls from 289.7 mmbbls a week earlier.

What else is happening in Oil & Energy?

Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Crude Settles Higher After US-Iran Clashes, Trump Vows Further Strikes

Crude oil futures settled higher in after-hours trading on Monday after the US and Iran exchanged fire for the first time in a month, as President Trump warned of further military action against Tehran, reviving concerns about further disruptions to crude supplies in the Middle East.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.5% to $86.31 per barrel, while Brent futures climbed 3% to $90.72/bbl.On Monday, Trump reportedly said that the US is going to hit Iran "very hard," after Tehran launched attacks on American army bases in Jordan and the UAE in response to Washington's strike on Larak Island in the strait over the weekend.The US Central Command fired on Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces after they were seen preparing to deploy mines into Hormuz.Centcom said that US forces took "limited, precise" action against minelaying forces of the IRGC that posed an "imminent threat" in the strategic waterway, without giving details.On Sunday, Trump also said in a social media post on Sunday that Iran's energy hub of Kharg Island was being "blown to smithereens", but there was no evidence the island was under attack.Saxo Bank strategists said that developments in the Middle East have once again dashed the prospects of bringing the conflict to an end. However, the analysts said that with an estimated 6-8 million barrels per day of crude flowing through the strait, the upside risk is, for now, being capped.Fueling bullish sentiment, Iranian media also said that an unidentified supertanker attempting to pass through the southern route in Hormuz was hit by two mines early on Monday and claimed that the country's authorities seized a bulk carrier near the port of Bandar Abbas in the Persian Gulf.However, Centcom refuted the reports, saying on Monday that no ships had hit mines in the strait.ING strategists said the key is whether US-Iran clashes ignite further rounds of strikes from both sides and whether they leave shippers hesitant to navigate the Strait of Hormuz.On the supply side, Trump said in a post on Truth Social that the oil from the deal with Venezuela will be used to replenish the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodriguez said that the energy agreement with the US would remain in force for 25 years and aim to increase crude output to 1.5 million barrels per day.ING strategists said the key is whether US-Iran clashes ignite further rounds of strikes from both sides and whether they leave shippers hesitant to navigate the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil & Energy

Namibia Critical Metals Confirms Working to Complete Lofdal Project-Related Joint Venture

Namibia Critical Metals (NMI.V) Monday after trade confirmed it is working with its joint venture partners, Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) and Toyota Tsusho, to complete the conditions to establish TJ Namibia Rare Earths, the company that will hold JOGMEC's 50% participating interest in the Lofdal Heavy Rare Earth Project in Namibia.The transaction was first announced July 30 and JOGMEC recently completed its C$23 million earn-in commitment for its stake in the project.Lofdal is an advanced-stage heavy rare earth projects with significant exposure to dysprosium, terbium and yttrium.Namibia Critical Metals shares closed unchanged at C$0.20, on the TSX Venture Exchange.

$NMI.V
Oil & Energy

US Crude Prices Seen Under Pressure as Hormuz Flows Recover, Stocks Rise, EBW Market Says

US crude prices are likely to remain under pressure over the coming weeks as improving flows through the Strait of Hormuz and rising US crude inventories offset geopolitical risks and signs of tightening refined-product supplies, EBW Analytics Group strategists said on Monday.EBW analysts see the front-month October WTI contract initially testing higher before coming under renewed pressure, with a potential range of $80.50-$89.50 per barrel and a target price of $82.00 over the next 7 to 10 days.The outlook turns more bearish further out, with November WTI seen eroding toward a $70.50-$85.50 range over 30-45 days, targeting $76.50. December crude is projected to trade between $63.50 and $73.50 over 90 days, with a target of $71.50.WTI settled at $83.40 per barrel on Aug.28, down $3.66, or 4.2%, from the previous week."While crude may test higher early this week on the first US attacks in a month, the trend of rising crude supply and strong commercial inventories suggests further erosion ahead," EBW analysts said.EBW analysts said that a key factor is the Strait of Hormuz, where flows are beginning to recover. The US Central Command said it had completed clearing naval mines, while Saudi and Iraqi exports were being lifted.The analysts forecasted total flows, including pipeline workarounds, were approaching 16 million barrels per day, compared with over 20 million b/d before the disruption.The recovery in exports is weakening the bullish case for crude, even as geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Iranian rocket launches and the threat of further US action have provided some support to oil prices, but the increase in physical supply is expected to weigh on the market.Meanwhile, US crude inventories increased for a fifth consecutive week, adding to pressure on prices.The Energy Information Administration reported commercial crude stocks at 428.9 million barrels for the week ended Aug. 21, up 0.1 million barrels. EBW forecast inventories to rise by 0.5 million to 1.5 million barrels in the week through Aug. 28.The projected stock level would put inventories between 427.4 million and 430.4 million barrels, about 6.7 million to 9.7 million barrels above the year-earlier level. EBW expects end-of-September inventories of 415 million to 425 million barrels.The US natural gas market has a firmer near-term outlook despite a weak longer-term picture.October Henry Hub futures settled Friday at $2.888 per million British thermal units, up 7.7 cents, or 2.7%, from the previous week.EBW expects October gas to test support and rebound over the next seven to 10 days, with a potential range of $2.81-$3.03/MMBtu and a target of $2.93. November is seen edging higher toward $3.07, while December could benefit from seasonal demand, reaching $3.38.Natural gas storage increased by 15 billion cubic feet in the week ended Aug. 21, 30 billion cubic feet below the five-year average increase. EBW expects inventories to rise by about 28 Bcf in the latest week.Storage stood at a deficit of 52 Bcf to last year's level but remained 158 Bcf above the five-year average. The consultancy firm projected end-of-September inventories of 3.46-3.49 Bcf.