EMEA crude futures tumbled in after-hours trading on Thursday after reports that oil tankers have begun transiting the Strait of Hormuz, easing immediate concerns over supply disruption following the signing of a US-Iran peace agreement.
Brent crude futures dropped by 2.7% to $77.50 per barrel, while Murban crude futures retreated 3.2% to $71.91/bbl.
Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that oil prices declined as the US-Iran interim peace agreement formally took effect and markets shifted focus to the reopening of the Strait.
Four Saudi Arabian supertankers that had been idling in the Indian Ocean for weeks reportedly moved toward the Gulf of Oman, signaling that producers are preparing for a gradual resumption of crude shipments through the Strait.
The vessels, owned by Saudi Arabia's Bahri, made sharp course adjustments early Thursday, according to media reports. Three other Bahri-operated tankers that had been stranded in the Persian Gulf for months also exited the strategic waterway earlier in the day.
Saxo Bank strategists said that an estimated 100 million barrels of crude and refined products are already loaded on tankers and waiting to leave the Gulf, while regional producers are taking steps to restart shut-in production.
The crossings follow the signing of a 14-point memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran on Wednesday to extend the ceasefire, including in Lebanon, and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Jeff LeBlanc, an analyst at TPH Energy, said Brent crude has fallen about 10% since last Friday, after President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed the agreement electronically.
The deal sees both sides commit to further talks over the next 60 days to reach a final agreement, and offers Iran major financial relief, including the ability to immediately resume oil sales. The reopening of Hormuz also paves the way for the restart of millions of barrels of oil production shuttered by major exporters, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq.
ING strategists said uncertainty remains about how quickly flows can normalize, with ramp-up timelines dependent on operational, logistical, and sanction-related adjustments.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency said the oil market will enter a significant supply overhang in 2027, with global supply set to surge by 8 million barrels per day while demand rises by just 2 million barrels per day.
On Thursday, OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais reportedly dismissed the IEA's prediction of a supply glut, after the producer group said in its 2026 World Oil Outlook that demand will rise to 124.1 million b/d by 2050.
OPEC said demand is forecast to reach 113.3 million b/d by 2030 and is projected to grow by 19 million b/d between 2025 and 2050.