EMEA crude futures fell in after-hours trading on Monday after US and Iranian officials touted progress in peace negotiations, and Washington waived sanctions on Iranian energy exports through August.
Brent crude futures dropped by 3.6% to $77.66 per barrel, while Murban crude futures retreated 4.3% to $70.80/bbl.
EBW AnalyticsGroup strategists said Brent crude for August delivery is expected to trade between $75.50 and $83.50/bbl over the next seven to 10 days, with a target price of $77.50.
The analysts forecast that prices could moderate to a range of $67.50 to $79.50 by September, while November contracts are seen drifting lower toward a target of $73.50/bbl.
The US Treasury Department said on Monday that Washington has authorized the sale of Iranian oil and fuels as part of an agreement to end the Middle East conflict.
The Treasury issued a 60-day license that allows Iran to sell its energy products through Aug. 21 and make payments in US dollars. The waiver also allows for the importation of Iranian crude oil and other petrochemical and petroleum products into the US.
"In line with the ongoing productive talks in Switzerland, Iran has committed to free and open transit in the Strait of Hormuz and to permit International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors into their country," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a post on X.
On Monday, Vice President JD Vance reportedly said that talks between the US and Iran have made "great progress" despite "threatening" and "whining."
"Yes, there was a little bit of threatening, there was a little bit of whining, but at the end of the day, the talks continued, and we made great progress," Vance said in a media address in Burgenstock, Switzerland.
Earlier, Iranian authorities said the talks had yielded "major progress." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the talks as having delivered "major progress," noting that Tehran had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, lifting of the blockade on its ports, and the release of some frozen assets.
Saxo Bank strategists said that the market continues to price in the prospect of an eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the release of millions of barrels currently stranded in the Persian Gulf.
Meanwhile, the latest shipping data show an uptick in oil and liquefied natural gas tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz over the 19-21 June period, though overall flows remain below pre-conflict levels despite a partial easing of restrictions.
Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that producers, including Kuwait and ADNOC, have already begun preparing for higher exports, as the full reopening of the Strait is expected to release significant volumes of stranded crude.
Kpler said a total of 71 confirmed vessel transits via the strategic waterway, with activity peaking at 35 crossings on Saturday.
The data analytics firm said commercial crossings have resumed, with Automatic Identification System transponders switched on more consistently than during the recent disruption, indicating improved confidence among operators.