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EMEA Oil Update: Crude Climbs as Hormuz Vessel Attacks Stoke Supply Concerns

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EMEA crude futures climbed in after-hours trading on Tuesday after a series of attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz heightened concerns over potential disruptions to the strategic waterway.

Brent crude futures rose 2.9% to $74.13 per barrel, while Murban crude futures advanced by 3% to $68.70/bbl.

Soojin Kim, a research analyst at MUFG, said crude prices edged higher after renewed attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz highlighted persistent security risks.

On Tuesday, two separate incidents of tankers transiting the Strait sustained minor structural damage after being struck by uncrewed aerial vehicles, the UK Maritime Trade Operations said, taking the total number of tanker attacks since Monday to three.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked a liquefied natural gas carrier after ignoring warnings while passing through the Omani route, according to Iranian media reports.

Qatar's foreign ministry spokesperson, Majed Al Ansari, said the targeting of the Qatari tanker near the Hormuz was an unacceptable attack on the security of international navigation and global energy supplies.

Al Ansari called on Tehran to "immediately cease all practices that undermine regional security or threaten the safety of international maritime navigation." A Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker was also reportedly damaged off Oman's coast.

Saxo Bank strategists said that crude prices rose after a Qatari LNG ship was struck by a projectile near the Omani coast, raising unease among shipowners while once again testing the US-Iran peace agreement.

Shipping via the Hormuz has continued to recover but remains below pre-conflict levels, with MarineTraffic reporting 108 confirmed crossings between Jul 3 and 5.

Kpler said improving Strait flows and weak Chinese demand have left Asia well supplied, shutting west-to-east arbs.

Meanwhile, global crude prices are projected to face renewed downward pressure as crude production rebounds and trade flows via the strategic waterway recover following the US-Iran peace deal to end the Middle East conflict, according to the Energy Information Administration.

The EIA said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook that Brent crude prices averaged $85/bbl in June, down $22 from May and $32/bbl below their April 2026 peak. The agency slashed its Brent forecast for Q3 to an average of $74/bbl, $27 lower than its previous outlook.

The EIA said that the recovery in supply and the restoration of oil trade flows are expected to ease pressure on global inventories. The agency now forecasts global oil inventories to decline by 2.2 million barrels per day in Q3, lower than its previous forecast of over 7 million b/d.

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