EMEA crude futures settled higher in after-hours trading on Monday, extending last week's gains, as renewed US-Iran attacks on vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz heightened concern that the conflict could further disrupt crude shipments from the Middle East.
Brent crude futures gained 1.5% to $97.70 per barrel, while Dubai 1st Line Futures surged 2.2% to $91.59/bbl.
Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said crude advanced as escalating US-Iran attacks on tankers and Iran's threat to establish a new restricted maritime zone intensified concerns over energy flows through the Hormuz.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said on Monday that any US attack on Iran's oil and gas assets will draw retaliation against American energy interests across the Persian Gulf region.
"It's simple: the oil and gas production chain here is sprawling, accessible, and exposed. American oil and gas companies across these waters and facilities share that exposure. Strike our assets, and you get struck," Qalibaf said in a social media post on X.
The US Central Command said on Saturday that the US military struck three Iranian oil tankers, including one off the coast of Kharg Island.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in response, targeted three oil tankers that were traveling through unauthorized routes in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as three US-linked vessels in other areas.
Saxo Bank strategists said that while crude remains below $100/bbl, the real energy market stress continues to build across refined products, particularly middle distillates such as jet fuel and diesel, with the latter now trading near $200/bbl.
Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell last week as shipping activity came under growing pressure from heightened security risks in the strategic waterway.
The latest data from Kpler shows that 77 crossings were recorded last week, down 28% from the previous week, while laden voyages fell to 33 from 45.
Kim said that with tanker traffic exposed to direct military action and restrictions around the strait potentially widening, risks to Gulf energy exports remain elevated, keeping a substantial geopolitical premium embedded in oil prices.
However, despite the escalation, crude continues to flow through the strategic waterway. The US Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, said that American military escorts have helped move an average of 9 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz.
On the supply front, OPEC+ members agreed on Sunday to keep the oil output policy unchanged for October at a meeting, it said in a statement, as the producer group needs to agree on new quotas before deciding its next output steps.
The meeting of seven core OPEC+ members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, comes as the Iran war continues to disrupt crude flows through the Hormuz.