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EMEA Oil Update: Brent Set to Snap Two Weeks of Losses

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Brent steadied on Friday, tracking toward a weekly gain despite an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire raising hopes for diplomacy between the US and Iran.

The Brent futures contract was steady at $95.09 per barrel. Murban futures closed at $93.50 on June 4 and were not trading by the time of publication of this oil price update.

Despite mid-week volatility triggered by shifting geopolitical headlines, both contracts remain on track to lock in net weekly gains, snapping a consecutive two-week streak of steep losses.

While a tentative, US-mediated Israel-Lebanon ceasefire initially cooled front-month risk premiums, de-escalation between Washington and Tehran has stalled.

"Trump is reportedly reluctant to resume full-scale war with Iran and would end the truce only if Tehran kills US troops. US-Iran talks show little progress, hindered by Israel's operations in Lebanon," Saxo Bank analysts said.

Underpinning the physical market is a severely disrupted supply matrix countered by surprisingly resilient demand parameters.

The Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical maritime oil transit chokepoint, remains effectively closed to normalized commercial shipping, keeping a structural risk premium firmly embedded across global prompt-month balances.

However, this supply-side shock has not derailed the long-term consumption outlook.

Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais confirmed that the organization is maintaining its global oil demand growth forecast at 1.2 million barrels per day for the year.

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