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EMEA Oil Update: Brent Firms Below $80 as Markets Assess Potential Peace Deal

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Brent crude futures ticked up on Wednesday as traders assessed an pending 60-day US-Iran ceasefire deal that could soon unleash restricted Iranian crude back into global shipping lanes.

The Brent futures contract edged up 0.3% at $79.16 per barrel. Murban futures closed at its lowest since late February at $71.81/bbl on June 16 and were not trading by the time of publication of this oil price update.

"Brent crude fell below $80/bbl for the first time since late February ahead of the signing of a peace deal between the US and Iran which is expected to result in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz," ANZ analysts said.

The market's long-term supply outlook hinges on a preliminary peace agreement that would extend the current US-Iran ceasefire by 60 days, establishing a formal framework to negotiate Tehran's nuclear program and regional maritime security.

President Donald Trump reportedly stated he is open to submitting the deal's details to Congress. While the exact text remains under wraps, the administration plans to officially unveil the details this Friday.

Competing against the prospect of renewed Iranian exports is a rapidly tightening domestic supply chain in the West.

Data released by the American Petroleum Institute showed US commercial crude inventories plummeted by 8.33 million barrels for the week ending June 12, significantly outpacing market expectations.

DBS recently slashed its long-term Brent crude price forecasts by $5 for both 2026 and 2027, cautioning that oil prices likely peaked during the Q2.

All eyes now turn to the official US Energy Information Administration crude inventory report to verify the scale of the domestic drawdown.

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US Oil Update: Crude Falls After US-Iran Peace Deal Signals Supply Boost

Crude oil futures settled lower in after-hours trading on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session, as investors weighed the prospect of increased Iranian crude exports and a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following a peace agreement between the US and Iran.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures tumbled 5.1% to $76.62 per barrel, while Brent futures plunged by 4.4% to $79.48/bbl.Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said optimism about a gradual recovery in Gulf exports has reduced the geopolitical risk premium built up during the conflict.On Tuesday, President Trump said that he's open to sending details of the peace agreement with Iran to members of Congress, according to media reports, as US lawmakers from both parties raise questions, saying they should vote on any final deal.The preliminary deal would extend the US-Iran ceasefire for 60 days and create a framework for future negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program and other issues. Though the agreement's text has not been released, Trump has said he would unveil details on Friday.A senior US official, in an emailed response to, described the deal as "performance-based," noting that Iran can access the agreement's benefits only if it abides by its commitments.The conditions include not pursuing a nuclear weapon, neutralizing its enriched uranium and not interfering with traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the official said.Though market participants have welcomed the prospect of increased crude flows via the Strait of Hormuz, RBC Capital Markets analysts said the operational challenges of reopening the Strait could take months to resolve.There are about 118 laden tankers trapped in strategic waterways, according to Kpler. However, though the vessels could leave within 10-15 days, Kpler analysts said they could deliver an early spike in transits without boosting regional production.Meanwhile, market participants are still grappling with whether the Strait has been mined, whether Iran retains de facto operational control, and how any transit tolls would be structured and collected.RBC Capital Markets analysts said the core MoU tentpoles remain unchanged from April and center on lifting the double blockade and reopening the Hormuz.On the supply front, the US will reportedly also allow Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel under the memorandum of understanding between the two sides, reached to end the conflict.

Oil & Energy

Iranian Oil Tankers Reposition Ahead of Potential Oil Export Resumption, Bloomberg Analysis Says

Iran-linked oil tankers have begun repositioning as Tehran moves closer to an agreement that could quickly reopen access to international oil markets, according to a Bloomberg analysis on Tuesday.Attention in the oil market has shifted to the potential return of Iranian barrels as traders assess the impact of any easing in US restrictions. About 68 million barrels of Iranian crude remain stranded under the blockade, according to a Kpler estimate cited by the analysis.Under a draft agreement nearing completion, Tehran could reportedly receive sanctions waivers that would allow oil exports to resume without delay once the deal is signed.Recent vessel-tracking data indicated that four ships resumed transmitting location signals and appeared to move through the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz. Two of the vessels are supertankers with a capacity to transport about 2 million barrels of crude each, according to the analysis.Several tankers that had been anchored near Chabahar also left the area in recent days. The destination of at least three of those vessels could not be immediately determined, the analysis added, citing TankerTrackers.com.Monitoring Iran's tanker fleet remains challenging because vessels often disable tracking systems and are frequently affected by signal interference. Ongoing regional tensions have added another layer of complexity to vessel-tracking efforts, the analysis added.Iranian media reported that efforts to remove the US naval blockade, which has been in place since mid-April, have entered the implementation stage. The Iranian Students' News Agency cited the Deputy Foreign Minister as saying the process is already underway.Shipping restrictions forced a number of Iranian tankers to remain near Chabahar after access to key export routes became limited. Reports said US naval forces also confronted some vessels attempting to move through the blockade in recent weeks.After reactivating their tracking signals, two fuel carriers crossed the Strait of Hormuz, with one continuing through the Gulf of Oman and another indicating a destination near Oman.The analysis said Washington and Tehran are expected to sign an agreement on Friday that would end both Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the US blockade of Iranian shipping.

Oil & Energy

Update: Market Chatter: US Intel Assessments Say Iran Gains Ability to Control Strait of Hormuz

(Updated with comments from a senior US official in paragraphs 5-7 and 12, and with the Market Chatter tag in the headline.)US intelligence assessments say Iran currently has the capability to open or close the Strait of Hormuz at will, giving Tehran direct leverage over one of the world's most important energy corridors, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the findings.US intelligence assessments conclude Iran now possesses a mix of military and asymmetric tools that can significantly disrupt global energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, giving Tehran leverage far beyond its conventional military weight.Iran's toolkit includes anti-ship missiles, drones, coastal launch systems and naval mines, along with hundreds of fast attack boats capable of swarming commercial vessels and harassing naval escorts.These assets allow Tehran to create enough risk in the waterway to slow or effectively choke traffic without needing full-scale naval dominance.To counter that, a senior White House official toldthat as Iran restores traffic, the US winds down the blockade in proportion.The senior US official said Iran has agreed to a performance-based MOU. "Iran performs, the relief follows, and American leverage holds the entire way," the senior US official toldin an emailed response."They cannot access any benefits of the deal unless the Strait of Hormuz remains open, along with abiding by the other points it agreed to," the official said.The CNN report said US analysts also point to Iran's proven ability to escalate indirectly through strikes on regional energy infrastructure. That expands the threat beyond a single chokepoint to oil production and export facilities across Gulf states, multiplying the potential economic impact.Iran's leverage is reinforced by its proxy network. The assessment notes that Tehran retains the option of activating Houthi forces in Yemen to threaten the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, another critical passage linking the Red Sea and Indian Ocean. If both chokepoints were disrupted simultaneously, global trade flows would face severe stress.Iran had long threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz but had not previously shown it could do so effectively until recent US-led combat operations with Israel. Multiple sources said the Trump administration initially believed Iran would avoid closure because it would damage its own economy more than the US, and expected China to restrain Tehran.As a result, Washington prioritized strikes on Iranian targets over deterring maritime disruption. Days into the conflict, that assumption proved wrong, with officials later assessing Iran acted after interpreting US regime-change rhetoric as an existential threat and escalating deliberately once its intentions were clear.The US is counting on Iran's concern for its economy while negotiations continue. "After Operation Epic Fury dismantled its military and Operation Economic Fury strangled its economy, Iran cannot afford to keep the Strait closed, which helped bring them to the table for a deal in the first place," the senior official told.Axios describes those benefits as broader sanctions relief, access to frozen funds and a potential $300 billion rebuilding investment fund.Despite current diplomatic efforts aimed at reopening maritime traffic, US intelligence officials now believe Iran retains both the capability and the incentive to introduce new disruptions if negotiations break down. Shipping analysts say that even in a "reopened" scenario, risk premiums and uncertainty could keep volumes below normal levels.The intelligence picture also highlights Iran's continued investment in its missile and drone programs and its ability to replenish systems faster than earlier US estimates anticipated.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)