FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Prices Slide as Hormuz Reopening Eases Supply Fears

By

European natural gas futures remained down in after-hours trading Friday, after an earlier sharp drop on word from both US President Donald Trump and Iranian officials that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened to commercial traffic.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract declined 8.03% to 39.015 euros ($46.04) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures fell 7.432% to 98.40 British pence ($1.33) per therm.

Prices dipped below 39 euros/MWh, the lowest level since February, before the conflict in the Middle East began.

The sell-off followed comments from Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who said the Strait of Hormuz remains fully open under current ceasefire conditions. The statement eased concerns about prolonged disruptions to one of the world's most critical energy transit routes and prompted traders to unwind risk premiums built up during the recent conflict.

Remarks from Trump also contributed to market sentiment, as he suggested Iranian concessions could support broader diplomatic progress, though he noted that a US naval blockade would remain in place until negotiations are complete.

At the peak of tensions, disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz affected roughly 20% of global LNG flows. The supply shock had pushed Asian import levels to multi-year lows, indirectly benefiting European buyers by reducing competition. With those risks now receding, traders are reassessing the supply outlook, Trading Economics said.

Prices were further pressured by weaker demand fundamentals. Unseasonably warm weather and stronger wind power generation across parts of Europe have reduced reliance on gas-fired electricity.

Lower prices may support inventory rebuilding ahead of winter as storage levels remain relatively low at 29.55% of capacity, compared with nearly 36% at the same time last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Concerns about summer energy supply persist. In a Thursday social media post, Atmospheric G2 noted limited precipitation and low snowpack in the Alps, raising the risk of reduced hydroelectric output that could tighten power markets during periods of extreme heat or drought.

The US National Weather Service said on Apr. 9 that El Nino conditions are likely to develop by May-July 2026 and persist through the end of the year. Forecasters say this increases the chance of a hotter-than-normal summer, particularly across southern Europe, which could further influence energy demand and market volatility.

Related Articles

Commodities

OneSubsea, Toyo Partner to Advance Carbon Capture in Southeast Asia

OneSubsea and Toyo Engineering are exploring carbon capture projects in Southeast Asia, signaling rising investment in CCS, Oil Cyprus said Wednesday.The partnership will focus on identifying and developing carbon capture and storage opportunities across the region, targeting emissions reduction from existing and future energy operations.Toyo Engineering will contribute its expertise in engineering, procurement, and construction, supporting project development and infrastructure deployment for CCS initiatives, Oil Cyprus added.The collaboration is expected to accelerate the adoption of carbon capture technologies across Southeast Asia's oil and gas industry, where decarbonization efforts are gaining momentum.It may also encourage further investment in CCS infrastructure, helping reduce emissions while supporting continued energy production in the region, the report added.The move highlights the growing role of CCS in helping energy companies meet climate targets while maintaining long-term operational and revenue sustainability.OneSubsea was established in 2023 as a joint venture backed by SLB.

Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise Supported by Weather Shift

US natural gas futures extended gains in after-hours trading on Thursday, supported by shifting weather forecasts that prompted late-session buying after a larger-than-expected storage build.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous benchmark each climbed 2.41% to settle at $2.673 per million British thermal units.Barchart said prices moved higher late Thursday as a mixed weather outlook triggered short-covering. It cited the Commodity Weather Group as saying forecasts shifted cooler across the eastern two-thirds of the US through Apr. 20, while above-average temperatures are expected in the eastern US and Upper Midwest from Apr. 21-25.Earlier on Thursday, the US Energy Information Administration reported its third consecutive weekly inventory increase, stating that stockpiles in underground storage rose by 59 billion cubic feet to 1,970 Bcf for the week ending Apr. 10. The build exceeded market expectations for a 55 Bcf increase, according to data from Investing.com.Inventories were now 126 Bcf above year-ago levels and 108 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,862 Bcf, though they remain within the historical five-year range, the EIA said. The latest injection also surpassed last year's 22 Bcf build and the five-year average increase of 38 Bcf.On the supply side, US lower-48 dry gas production was estimated at 110.7 Bcf per day on Thursday, up 3.3% year over year, Barchart said, citing BNEF. Demand in the lower 48 states was 70.0 Bcf per day, down 4.3% from a year earlier. Estimated LNG net flows to export terminals were 19.9 Bcf per day, unchanged week over week.Gelber & Associates said supply, US production plus Canadian imports, was running at 114 Bcf per day against demand of 105 Bcf per day. On the demand side, power burn has improved to 32 Bcf per day on a weekly basis, but that support has been offset by a sharp drop in residential and commercial demand to 13.5 Bcf per day from 20.8 Bcf per day last week as heating demand continues to decline."With the storage surplus widening and the broader balance still comfortable, the front of the curve looks likely to stay under pressure unless weather can generate a more durable demand response," Gelber & Associates said early Thursday.

Commodities

UK's Drax Gets Record $1.4 billion Subsidy in 2025 As Support Set To Be Halved, Ember Says

UK's Drax Group received a record 999 million British pounds ($1.4 billion) in public subsidies in 2025 for its biomass power station, even as support is set to be cut from 2027, Ember strategists said in a note Thursday.Ember analysts said the payments, funded through consumer energy bills, amount to about 2.7 million British pounds per day and add about 13 British pounds to the average UK household bill per year.Frankie Mayo, senior UK analyst at Ember, said, subsidies are set to fall to about 460 million British pounds per year from early 2027, marking the start of a phase-out of support for large-scale biomass generation.Mayo said that would still amount to about 1.25 million British pounds per day, or about 6 British pounds per household annually.Drax operates the UK's largest power station by output and is also its single biggest carbon emitter. However, emissions from burning woody biomass are classified as carbon-neutral under current accounting rules, allowing it to qualify for renewable energy subsidies.Ember said support has been delivered through two schemes, the Renewables Obligation, which paid 728 million British pounds in 2025 for three of Drax's generating units, and Contracts for Difference, which provided 271 million British pounds for a fourth unit.Total subsidies paid to Drax since 2012 have reached 8.72 billion British pounds, the majority of which have been through the RO scheme, which is due to end in Q1 2027.Ember said a new, lower CfD mechanism will replace it, with the contract running for up to four years until 2031. Though the strike price under the new scheme will rise to 157 British pounds per megawatt hour in 2024 prices, the volume of subsidized generation will be capped at lower levels.However, despite the reduction in support, Ember expects Drax to remain the UK's largest emitter through at least 2030 due to the scale of its operations.The long-term outlook for the plant remains uncertain, as Drax has stepped back from plans to invest in carbon capture technology, which had been central to its case for continued subsidies. Without carbon capture, Ember analysts say the rationale for ongoing public support weakens significantly.The energy firm has already scaled back related projects and shifted investment towards other energy technologies, raising further questions over the future role of biomass in the UK's power mix.