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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Prices Rise on US-Iran Escalation, Heat Risks

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European natural gas futures climbed in after-hours trading on Monday after renewed tensions between the US and Iran revived concerns over potential supply disruptions, while traders also monitored reports of possible diplomatic talks scheduled for Tuesday in Doha.

Front-month Dutch TTF futures rose by 4.482%, to 42.61 euros ($48.68) per megawatt-hour, while UK natural gas gained 5.164%, to trade at 102.85 British pence ($1.36) per therm.

Prices surged after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted eight US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain with missile and drone attacks over the weekend, describing the strikes as retaliation for US attacks on Iranian targets late last week.

US President Donald Trump said the two sides were expected to meet in Doha on Tuesday, although Iran had not confirmed its participation.

Beyond geopolitical risks, weather forecasts also supported prices.

Energy consultancy Mind Energy said that another heat dome forecast for next week could trigger additional nuclear reactor outages in France by raising river temperatures and limiting the availability of cooling water. While the current heat wave is expected to ease across western Europe as it shifts eastward, hotter conditions are forecast to intensify across eastern parts of the continent.

Higher prices also threaten to slow Europe's efforts to rebuild inventories ahead of the winter heating season.

European gas storage facilities were 48.29% full as of Monday, compared with 57.77% a year earlier, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. Storage levels also remained well below the five-year average of 62.9% for this time of year, according to data from the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

Celsius Energy estimated EU gas inventories at 1,856 billion cubic feet, 567 Bcf, or 23.4%, below the five-year average and 387 Bcf, or 17.2%, below levels recorded at the same point last year.

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