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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Prices Rise Despite New Iranian Overture to US

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European natural gas futures rebounded in after-hours trade on Monday after traders began discounting the impact of a fresh Iranian peace proposal sent to the US via Pakistan aimed at ending the conflict between the two countries.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 0.574% to 50.455 euros ($58.80) per megawatt hour by late trade, while the UK front-month NBP contract rose 0.113% at 123.80 pence ($1.66).

Dutch gas prices had earlier climbed above 52 euros/MWh prior to news of the proposal amid escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, including a weekend drone attack that triggered a fire at a nuclear facility in the UAE.

Prices then eased amid media reports citing Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei as saying Tehran's views had been "conveyed to the American side through Pakistan," without providing further details. There was no immediate response from Washington.

The proposal appeared broadly similar to an earlier Iranian offer rejected last week by US President Donald Trump as "garbage," Reuters reported.

Earlier in the day, the Wall Street Journal cited analysts at ING as saying the market continued to underestimate the potential supply disruptions to the LNG market, driven by Asian buyers turning to spot markets to replace disrupted cargoes and intensifying competition with European buyers.

Additionally, European gas markets also remained supported by low storage levels ahead of winter. EU gas storage sites were 36.34% full as of Monday, compared with 44.43% a year earlier, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Separately, forecasting firm Atmospheric G2 said in a social media post on Monday that Italy was entering the summer season with unusually low snowpack and water levels in the Alps, a development that could reduce hydropower generation, increase pressure on river systems and affect regional electricity markets.

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Weekly US Natural Gas Posts Gains on Warm Weather Forecasts Despite Soft Demand

US natural gas markets edged higher over the week as weather forecasts pointed to above-normal temperatures expected to lift cooling demand, even as overall consumption remained muted across much of the US.The front-month June contract price rose to $2.96 per million British thermal units from $2.75/MMBtu on May 8.The front-month June contract price rose over the week to $2.86/MMBtu from $2.73/MMBtu on May 8, according to the US Energy Information Administration's Weekly Gas Storage Supplement, released on Wednesday.Natural gas spot prices rose by $0.13/MMBtu to $2.88/MMBtu during the week ended May 13, according to the EIA, from $2.75/MMBtu the prior week.This comes despite near-normal temperatures prevailing across most of the US, with limited heating or cooling needs, leading to lower gas consumption. Total gas demand dropped 0.5 billion cubic feet per day, or by 1% from the prior week, according to LSEG data.This was led by a 1.8 Bcf/d, or 13% decline in residential and commercial consumption, which was largely offset by a 1.8 Bcf increase in demand from the electric power sector.Additionally, LNG feedgas continued to average around 17 Bcf/d, compared to the 30-day moving average of 18.75 Bcf. This is largely due to several major LNG facilities undergoing planned maintenance.Prices surged across most regional hubs during the week, but not all, with Waha reporting a $0.36/MMBtu increase. In the power sector, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, also known as ERCOT, supplied 20% more natural gas-fired generation, owing to a steep decline in wind and nuclear generation, which fell by 19% and 12%, respectively.The net injection into storage for the week ended May 8 was 85 Bcf, up from 63 Bcf the prior week, bringing total gas inventories to 2,290 Bcf, according to EIA data. The injection was slightly below analyst forecasts of 86 Bcf, supporting prices, according to data compiled by Investing.com.During the same week last year, the EIA reported a net injection of 109 Bcf, with the five-year average for this period at 84 Bcf.Total gas inventories at 2,290 Bcf are now 51 Bcf, or 2% above the corresponding period a year ago, and 140 Bcf, or 7%, higher than the five-year average for this period.Nearly all regions reported a net injection of working gas for the week ended May 8, with the East and South Central regions injecting 27 Bcf, while the Pacific and Mountain regions remain above their respective year-ago and five-year average levels.Analysts at NRG Energy noted that storage replenishment has been much slower so far this year, with surpluses relative to prior-year figures starting to fall.Meanwhile, the US gas rig count dropped by one from 129 the previous week to 128, in the week ending May 15, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. That compares with 108 gas rigs in operation a year earlier.The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, rose by three to 675 from 672 the previous week.Weather forecasts are now pointing to above-normal temperatures across most of the country over the last week of this month, according to the National Weather Service. This is expected to add to cooling gas demand over the next two weeks.A total of 37 liquefied natural gas-carrying vessels left US ports during the week, up by seven, compared to 30 vessels last week, with a total capacity of 141 Bcf, up by 26 Bcf compared to the prior week.In international markets, European TTF gas prices averaged $15.68/MMBtu for the week ended May 13, $0.17/MMBtu higher than the previous week.The Japan-Korea Marker averaged $16.93/MMBtu, about $0.03/MMBtu higher than the prior week.In project development news, Caturus announced a final investment decision on its $13 billion Commonwealth LNG project in Cameron Parish, Louisiana. The company also secured $9.75 billion in financing for the 9.5 million metric tons per annum export terminal, which is scheduled to enter service in 2030.Speaking during a CNBC interview reposted by the Department of Energy, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the market had lost about 10 Bcf/d of gas exports amid disruptions affecting LNG trade flows.Wright said the US currently exports about 20 Bcf/d of natural gas, roughly double the volumes exported by the next-largest global suppliers. He added that the US is still adding about 2.5 Bcf/d of new export capacity this year.

$BKR
Commodities

Iowa, Missouri, Sue New York Over Mandatory GHG Reporting Program, Alleging Overreach

Iowa and Missouri sued New York on Thursday over its mandatory Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, which imposes reporting requirements, compliance costs, and penalties on out-of-state fuel suppliers, including producers of ethanol, biodiesel and other biomass-derived fuels.The suit was filed in the US District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri, alleging that the program requires fuel suppliers to register with New York and report the amount of liquid fuel that they may sell there, regardless of where the initial sale or production occurs.Iowa and Missouri officials believe this violates the US Constitution.In 2019, New York enacted a law requiring substantial reductions in the state's greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and even greater reductions by 2040.The court document stated that the law did not specify how those reductions would be achieved. Rather, it directed New York's environmental agency to issue regulations supplying those details. Those emissions reduction regulations have not yet been issued.In December 2025, New York issued regulations establishing a Mandatory Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, or the GHG Rule.The rule does not set emissions limits. It imposes reporting and compliance obligations to generate information that New York intends to use to create regulations that will reduce New York's greenhouse gas emissions considerably by 2030.The GHG Rule also states that New York may enter and inspect a reporting entity's property without notice, impose civil and criminal penalties, and enjoin any violations.But the GHG Rule does not apply only to entities located in or doing business in New York. Instead, it reaches activity beyond New York's borders.As currently written, the GHG Rule extends to fuel suppliers in Iowa and Missouri, as well as to AmFree's members in the biofuels industry, according to the court filing.Iowa produces the most ethanol and biodiesel of any state in the US. Missouri is the thirteenth-largest ethanol-producing state.

Commodities

PG&E Activates Emergency Center Ahead of California Fire Risk

Pacific Gas and Electric (PCG) said Friday it activated its Emergency Operations Center as a dry offshore wind event raised wildfire risks across parts of Northern California for Sunday and Monday.PG&E said dry and fair weather conditions will continue Friday with west to northwest winds staying mostly below 30 miles per hour before a low-pressure system brings stronger northerly winds over the weekend.Wind gusts could reach 30 mph to 45 mph along the North Coast and coastal gaps Saturday, while gusts across the Sacramento Valley may range between 25 mph and 35 mph, PG&E said.By Sunday morning, winds are expected to shift northeast with gusts reaching 35 mph to 50+ mph across the Sacramento Valley and 30 mph to 40 mph through the San Joaquin Valley.Localized gusts could exceed 55+ mph across elevated Bay Area terrain and portions of the western Sacramento Valley, according to PG&E.The company said winds will weaken slightly on Sunday night before isolated gusts of 20 mph to 35 mph redevelop on Monday across the Sacramento Valley and nearby terrain.A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from early Saturday through Monday evening across the Central Valley due to gusty winds and low humidity levels, PG&E said.Dead fuel moisture levels are trending below normal, while lower-elevation vegetation species, including Chamise and Sagebrush, are approaching flammable conditions.Northern Operations Predictive Services expects normal fire activity in May before conditions rise above normal from June through August as vegetation becomes more flammable, PG&E said.Southern Operations Predictive Services expects wildfire activity across the region to remain near normal levels through August.The utility said 448 of 788 circuits located in High Fire Risk Areas currently have Enhanced Powerline Safety Settings enabled, while another 30 buffer-only circuits also remain activated.

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